If it cools the whole column, it could. If you get good cold air damming where you are borderline between ZR and SN, you can get all snow instead. Typically it doesn't cool to height though - WAA overcomes it with the warm nose at height, so you get warm moist air at height and precip falling into dry air that cools either enough to turn it to sleet or just cools the surface temp enough to turn the rain to ice at the surface.
Was expecting "slight chance of cold rain" from MEG.
Or freezing rain. Having the cold air already in place is making a big difference in messaging. Like the only big question is the placement and track of the Gulf low
That is shocking!
Real time analysis will be big moving forward if there's any trends for colder or warmer.
My biggest fear is that the nam is underestimating the shallow cold air from the east and this winds up being a crippling ice storm east of I65 and along and south of I20 around 30 miles.
Yes you can have snow at 33 but only if the entire column above is 32 or lower..we won't have that, there will be a layer of around 40° air aloft that the snow flakes will melt in while passing through before reaching the ground
What makes this even more complicated is that melting is a cooling process, so if there are enough snow flakes melting in that layer, it can chill it....but jeep in mind there is contanst flow of warm air in that layer above. Also near the ground, freezing is a warming process...so if rain is freezing on contact, it releases latent heat that could cause the temp to go above freezing....then it melts....which is a cooling process....and the reverse happens. Lots going on at once
