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Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

RandyStewart said:
Same spot as me! Glad to know we could get several inches of snow... or ice... or just rain.
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There's only a select few privileged among us who know the origins of the "randy stewart" handle.

Unless that's your real name, then disregard.

Hail State and long live Jack Cristil.
 
I work at Columbus AFB, and they’re already sending emails out to expect to telework at max capacity on Friday. For them to send information out so early (granted tomorrow is a day of mourning and offices are closed), the base meteorologists and JAN must be fairly confident that travel will be impacted.
 
I sometimes step back and find it amazing that we know the storm is coming at all - cyclogenesis in the gulf hasn't happened yet, and yet we're discussing the track and impact of something that doesn't exist yet. Tough forecast? Absolutely. Better than it was 30 years ago when I started watching snow threats? Absolutely as well.
 
Blountwolf said:
I sometimes step back and find it amazing that we know the storm is coming at all - cyclogenesis in the gulf hasn't happened yet, and yet we're discussing the track and impact of something that doesn't exist yet. Tough forecast? Absolutely. Better than it was 30 years ago when I started watching snow threats? Absolutely as well.
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Very true...the Eta wouldn't have had a clue!
 
sak said:
seems like the models are a touch warmer than they were 18-24 hours ago.

i'm in north shelby county about 10 miles southeast of downtown birmingham. there was a time there where it looked like the warm air advection would lose out and we could get a lot of ice and snow. now, i'm pretty concerned that we are all rain my mid morning.

how are temperatures yesterday and today faring compared to forecast? i am curious if the snowpack across MO/KY is being modeled correctly. would love for the models to be 3-5 degrees too warm, but i'm skeptical.

will birmingham EVER have a snow forecast where there is virtually no question about it? there's always something missing. precip outrunning cold air, warm air advection, 33 degrees, very cold but no moisture, a bad sun angle in late february or march that melts snow even when it is 20 degrees outside. just once i'd like to experience what the US72 corridor is getting... a worry free forecast where the only question is 2-3 inches or 8 inches.
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March 1993 was a slam dunk sure thing forecast for snow here in Bham.
 
Richardjacks said:
I just don't see how this is all snow, at least for the i20 corridor and south, too warm aloft....and not just by a degree or two. I think the surprise will either be more rain vs anything else or more ice, snow seems the least likely. Low is too far north and very warm air sitting to our south.
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sadly, i think you may be right.

i'm gonna keep holding out hope the models trend colder over the next 36 hours.

i will say some models (namely the 00Z GFS) seem to have precip breaking out across central alabama with cold air in place. if it's dry enough and precip heavy enough, maybe... just maybe, the cold air can filter into the middle layers and keep the WAA south. wishcast? maybe a little.
 
North MS into North AL/Northern areas of Central Alabama look great for decent snow accumulations. Yes I'm ignoring the Canadian and NAM
 
brianc33710 said:
March 1993 was a slam dunk sure thing forecast for snow here in Bham.
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The forecast a couple days before was 2-4 inches though. 13-24 inches fell. Day before forecasts were up to "as much as 8 inches". It still surprised us quite a bit.
 
Blountwolf said:
The forecast a couple days before was 2-4 inches though. 13-24 inches fell. Day before forecasts were up to "as much as 8 inches". It still surprised us quite a bit.
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True, but the question was about the amount, which was what @sak had in mind. By Friday, local Mets finally said 8-16 & 12-18 and even then some places got more than 18".
 
Richardjacks said:
Not good, it would mean ice...only good if it's deep enough for sleet, but probably not as it's usually very shallow
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I think this is also what the models are sniffing with the ATL ice outputs. Yes, NAM may be overdone, but it showed up on Goofus too.
 
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