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Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

Hmm... only one frame of this GFS run am I under rain just north of Bham, at the very end. I like that. Slightly further south than last run. EDIT - well, maybe not the low - it's onshore.
 
Richardjacks said:
yes not as warm...I have a gut feeling that even with the nams current track, the nam's 850 temps are going to back off a bit.
Also i ecpect more precip on the backside as the low is in central georgia...still a southweserly flow aloft til noon saturday
Click to expand...
What are your thoughts about someone getting thundersnow or thundersleet with this system?
 
Richardjacks said:
yes not as warm...I have a gut feeling that even with the nams current track, the nam's 850 temps are going to back off a bit.
Also i ecpect more precip on the backside as the low is in central georgia...still a southweserly flow aloft til noon saturday
Click to expand...
Isn't the NAM a bit notorious for a warm bias anyway?
 
cyelle21 said:
And it shows snow for the northern half of Alabama...but of course rain eventually moves in.
Click to expand...
I want snow ❄️ with no power outages. But I would prefer to avoid power outages without having rain melting the snow. And as dangerous as it is, I admit I find freezing rain a fascinating weather phenomenon, even more so when thunderstorms are involved. I know people are gonna hate me for saying that but it's true. @JPWX A couple of years back the SPC issued discussions because some of the freezing rain thunderstorms in DFW got rather strong. That led me to wonder if 1 has ever been severe.
 
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06z nam is a freezing rain mess for central Alabama.

09z rap looks like it's a little more southerly track
 
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Depending on where the heavy snow banding sets up, someone is going to get dumped on.
The problem is where?

It Could be easten Ark and northwest ms southwest Tennessee, OR, northewest/northeast ms and central Tennessee, OR,
northeast ms/northwest Alabama, central/eastern Tennessee.

I don't envy anyone trying to forecast this.
You'd have better luck playing chicken blindfolded with a pi$$ed off bull.
 
This is from the latest BMX discussion. What does this mean by the system being suppressed? Are they talking about the position of the low?

"Due to the system being more suppressed in nature, colder air is also present across Central Alabama as moisture quickly streams northeastward within the strong 500-700mb flow. At least a mixed bag of precipitation is expected to begin across far southern and southwest counties initially late Thursday night with a completely saturated sounding profile all the way up to 250mb. Radar returns will likely be widespread by midnight Thursday night in southwestern and western counties as the precipitation aloft falls through the drier column of air closer to the surface. With dynamic cooling, forecast soundings are showing a potential for a burst of snow or wintry mix as far south as the U.S. 80/I-85 corridors before changing over to all rain during the mid-morning hours."
 
06z hrrr has a heavy band of precip just north of I 20. Waiting on the 12z to finish, it's currently rolling out. Should give central Alabama a idea of how things will look until about 6am Friday.
 
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