Hmm... only one frame of this GFS run am I under rain just north of Bham, at the very end. I like that. Slightly further south than last run. EDIT - well, maybe not the low - it's onshore.
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Current Tropical Systems Melissa
Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25
- Thread starter DetectiveWX
- Start date
Good shift south on the GFS ensembles. I like that. Birmingham cutoff with increased amounts north and east.
yes not as warm...I have a gut feeling that even with the nams current track, the nam's 850 temps are going to back off a bit.
Also i ecpect more precip on the backside as the low is in central georgia...still a southweserly flow aloft til noon saturday
Also i ecpect more precip on the backside as the low is in central georgia...still a southweserly flow aloft til noon saturday
Not liking these GA freezing rain amounts showing up on the GFS like they did on the NAM...
What are your thoughts about someone getting thundersnow or thundersleet with this system?
Not sure the dynamics are there for any connective parameters...but if it does happen, I would guess somewhere along that 850mb nose/deformation zone and frontogeneiss north of Bham as the low deepens
MikeP
Member
NE Bama gets hammered on that one...
And that's the ensemble mean accumulation.
MikeP
Member
Isn't the NAM a bit notorious for a warm bias anyway?
I dont remember it being biased in this kind of situation...but i do remember it being too warm in low levels when it comes to severe storms and overestimating instability. Usually it corrects about 48 to 36 hours before
brianc33710
Member
I want snow
with no power outages. But I would prefer to avoid power outages without having rain melting the snow. And as dangerous as it is, I admit I find freezing rain a fascinating weather phenomenon, even more so when thunderstorms are involved. I know people are gonna hate me for saying that but it's true. @JPWX A couple of years back the SPC issued discussions because some of the freezing rain thunderstorms in DFW got rather strong. That led me to wonder if 1 has ever been severe.
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06z nam is a freezing rain mess for central Alabama.
09z rap looks like it's a little more southerly track
09z rap looks like it's a little more southerly track
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Winter storm watches as far south as Birmingham 
David in SW Blount
Member
The Birmingham morning discussion mentioned possibly extending the Watch to the southwest later today.
Smokedevil
Member
Depending on where the heavy snow banding sets up, someone is going to get dumped on.
The problem is where?
It Could be easten Ark and northwest ms southwest Tennessee, OR, northewest/northeast ms and central Tennessee, OR,
northeast ms/northwest Alabama, central/eastern Tennessee.
I don't envy anyone trying to forecast this.
You'd have better luck playing chicken blindfolded with a pi$$ed off bull.
The problem is where?
It Could be easten Ark and northwest ms southwest Tennessee, OR, northewest/northeast ms and central Tennessee, OR,
northeast ms/northwest Alabama, central/eastern Tennessee.
I don't envy anyone trying to forecast this.
You'd have better luck playing chicken blindfolded with a pi$$ed off bull.
brianc33710
Member
Yeah I'm surprised Tuscaloosa & Bibb weren't included, as I guess would be Pickens.
cyelle21
Member
This is from the latest BMX discussion. What does this mean by the system being suppressed? Are they talking about the position of the low?
"Due to the system being more suppressed in nature, colder air is also present across Central Alabama as moisture quickly streams northeastward within the strong 500-700mb flow. At least a mixed bag of precipitation is expected to begin across far southern and southwest counties initially late Thursday night with a completely saturated sounding profile all the way up to 250mb. Radar returns will likely be widespread by midnight Thursday night in southwestern and western counties as the precipitation aloft falls through the drier column of air closer to the surface. With dynamic cooling, forecast soundings are showing a potential for a burst of snow or wintry mix as far south as the U.S. 80/I-85 corridors before changing over to all rain during the mid-morning hours."
"Due to the system being more suppressed in nature, colder air is also present across Central Alabama as moisture quickly streams northeastward within the strong 500-700mb flow. At least a mixed bag of precipitation is expected to begin across far southern and southwest counties initially late Thursday night with a completely saturated sounding profile all the way up to 250mb. Radar returns will likely be widespread by midnight Thursday night in southwestern and western counties as the precipitation aloft falls through the drier column of air closer to the surface. With dynamic cooling, forecast soundings are showing a potential for a burst of snow or wintry mix as far south as the U.S. 80/I-85 corridors before changing over to all rain during the mid-morning hours."
06z hrrr has a heavy band of precip just north of I 20. Waiting on the 12z to finish, it's currently rolling out. Should give central Alabama a idea of how things will look until about 6am Friday.
Smokedevil
Member
There will be a sharp cutoff for the heavy snow bands. Anyone that's lucky enough to get under one, will get dumped on. Could be alot also.
The 06z nam did go warmer as we discussed last night.