Severe Weather Threat 1/5-1/6/2025

[Tennie]

Gorey Gerken has a lowering on his stream (which can be found on the Radar Omega app; he's on the storm near the LA/AR/MS border).

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Gorey Gerken has a lowering on his stream (which can be found on the Radar Omega app; he's on the storm near the LA/AR/MS border).

His feed keeps cutting out for me unfortunately

 

[Clancy]

Tornado Watch forthcoming for much of MS.

Mesoscale Discussion 0012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Louisiana into Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 051909Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through the
afternoon across eastern Louisiana into Mississippi. Damaging wind
gusts and a few tornadoes are possible into this evening.

DISCUSSION...The warm sector is continuing to expand north and east
across the Lower Mississippi Valley early this afternoon. Mid-60s F
surface dewpoints are now evident across southwest MS, and as far
north as far southwest AR, with cloud breaks evident in visible
satellite imagery. Some continued moistening is expected with north
and east extent into late afternoon/evening ahead of the
eastward-advancing cold front.

The VWP at KDGX shows increasing low to midlevel flow overspreading
the region with the arrival of better low-level moisture. Enlarged,
looping low-level hodographs amid 0-1 km SRH greater than 200 m2/s2
suggest rotating storms (both with discrete convection and embedded
within the QLCS) will pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts.
Of particular interest, an area from northeast LA into southwest and
west-central MS shows overlaps between backed low-level flow, cloud
breaks/stronger heating, mid-60s F dewpoints and stronger 2-hr
pressure falls. This area could become a corridor of enhanced
severe/tornado potential later this afternoon/early evening.

While the northward extent of this potential is a bit uncertain and
conditional on the northward progression of the warm sector, at
least some severe potential is expected to extend into portions of
northern MS. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the next hour
or so for portions of the MCD area.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 12

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[cg9450]

His feed keeps cutting out for me unfortunately

I know we're in a hole for that Batstrop storm but the velocities keep getting sloppier and sloppier.

 

[cg9450]

Tornado Watch forthcoming for much of MS.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 12

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Good ol' 64F dew points

 

[Tennie]

I know we're in a hole for that Batstrop storm but the velocities keep getting sloppier and sloppier.

It seems to be having trouble connecting to the ground--the latest surface data in the immediate vicinity shows a dewpoint depression of around 10 degrees Fahrenheit, indicating some fairly dry air at/just above the surface.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

He's got a good view of it now. Kindve hard to tell though at the distance if anything is down.

Just went tornado warned

 

[Tennie]

Tornado Warning for the storm now:

926
WFUS54 KJAN 051938
TORJAN
LAC035-067-123-052045-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0001.250105T1938Z-250105T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
138 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Morehouse Parish in northeastern Louisiana...
Northeastern East Carroll Parish in northeastern Louisiana...
West Carroll Parish in northeastern Louisiana...

* Until 245 PM CST.

* At 138 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Goodwill, or 12 miles west of Oak Grove, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Oak Grove and Forest around 145 PM CST.
Kilbourne around 155 PM CST.
Gassoway and Millikin around 200 PM CST.
Shelburn around 205 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 9147 3300 9117 3299 9117 3296 9120
3293 9121 3291 9120 3290 9115 3291 9114
3298 9114 3299 9112 3298 9109 3295 9108
3292 9106 3289 9107 3286 9110 3268 9164
3282 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 237DEG 41KT 3282 9161

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That tornado warning is right in the sweet spot of parameters if It can use it, it might produce something substantial

 

[Tanner]

Very similar to the Rolling Fork storm a couple of years ago, the storm to the west could look to act as a nudger to the front storms rear flank and aid in tornadogenesis.

 

[AJS]

Wouldn't be surprised if that storm west of rolling fork goes tornado warned.

Gosh, I can’t even imagine how terrifying it must be getting a tornado warning in that area.

 

[AJS]

It’s definitely trying.

 

[Ledian]

Looks to be turning a little more north to me, so Kilbourne and Eudora better keep a close eye on things. Hollandale too

 

[AJS]

Each scan it seems to be getting more organized.

 

[JPWX]

Rolling Fork is like Smithville now and so many others. Once a significant tornado hits, it seems like every other storm each year aims for that same place.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Got about a EHI of 5 near the storm now. The supercell that was right behind it looks to be catching up. I wonder if this will be a constructive or destructive merger; if it ever does catch up.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tornado warning near Dumas Arkansas

 

[Ledian]

Ooh, velocity looks a bit nasty

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wow thats a incredible couplet in Dumas.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tornado warning near farmersville Lousianna now. Impressive couplet as well