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Winter Weather 2025

The GFS has certainly trended north and west. Will be interesting to see if the Euro follows now that it sees the system.
 

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Notice where 0Z puts that low. What a difference a run makes. That would mean a LOT of fun for N/Cen Alabama.
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06Z Euro also puts the low in the gulf and has dropped a couple inches of snow accumulation over N/AL by 144.
 
Richardjacks said:
Dang the ice in north Alabama on the 12z gfs
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SW AR would be such a mess with that. W SC too, and realistically any place in between in N MS, AL, and GA.

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The overall system trend is back SE where we want it though. Low in the gulf - our best winter weather mischief maker.
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Yep, as Richard said, the 12ZGFS run is an icy mess for Cullman and south. What? A system in Alabama where the rain/frz/snow line is somewhere between Bham and Huntsville? No.... that never happens. <snicker>

There's no confidence to be had in where that line will exactly set up yet, and there won't be for days. But the trend towards a gulf low and with snow cover just to the north, there's little doubt that "something impactful this way comes".

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Blountwolf said:
Yep, as Richard said, the 12ZGFS run is an icy mess for Cullman and south. What? A system in Alabama where the rain/frz/snow line is somewhere between Bham and Huntsville? No.... that never happens. <snicker>

There's no confidence to be had in where that line will exactly set up yet, and there won't be for days. But the trend towards a gulf low and with snow cover just to the north, there's little doubt that "something impactful this way comes".

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Just give me a once in a decade snow of half a foot here in Birmingham on Friday night and I'll be as happy as a little kid on Christmas haha. No ice or sleet
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Just give me a once in a decade snow of half a foot here in Birmingham on Friday night and I'll be as happy as a little kid on Christmas haha. No ice or sleet
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This is a better setup than I've seen in while, but these are always a goldilocks scenario - gulf low, enough cold, warm nose not too far north, etc, etc. Entirely too many variables to nail down more than a day or two in advance, and as "snowmageddon" taught us, sometimes not even then. Loving the possibility though - any time a warm gulf and and arctic blast are involved together, there's a chance that is too tantalizing to ignore.
 
Blountwolf said:
This is a better setup than I've seen in while, but these are always a goldilocks scenario - gulf low, enough cold, warm nose not too far north, etc, etc. Entirely too many variables to nail down more than a day or two in advance, and as "snowmageddon" taught us, sometimes not even then. Loving the possibility though - any time a warm gulf and and arctic blast are involved together, there's a chance that is too tantalizing to ignore.
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What has me worried is that the cold air is a bit too dense for models to handle and models maybe coming in a little warmer than it actually will be. I kinda hope that happens cause I want some snow haha
 
Basically what I just told my mom was pattern favors a southern winter storm (potentially significant). Whether or not it's all snow/sleet/freezing or a whole mixture of each or if we see any accumulations (snow/sleet/freezing rain) is all unknown. Two things going for it are the pattern and the cold air already in place. We'll be hard pressed to reach 45 this week.
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
What has me worried is that the cold air is a bit too dense for models to handle and models maybe coming in a little warmer than it actually will be. I kinda hope that happens cause I want some snow haha
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Yeah, I expect the model runs after this system today will look a bit different - reality being ingested after a system tends to do that. If Louisville is any indication, seems to be overperforming.

On an entirely whimsical note, if Louisville gets that brief changeover to ZR, the crust for sledding on top of that 7+ inches of dense snow is going to be off the hook.
 
12Z Euro buries TX and then drops a couple inches over AL over to ATL. Low still in the gulf.


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