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Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

UncleJuJu98 said:
Wondering how high the probs will be for Alabamas new watch
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Coordination call is underway so it should be out soon.

Since I'm now working later tonight thanks to this event, it does appear that there is a significant mass response ongoing that is allowing WAA to expand farther north into AL. Over here in Georgia, I'm still unconvinced the wedge erodes quickly and it will be more of a just-in-time erosion with a narrow axis of instability working into at least northwest Georgia before the line outpaces it. Everything will be spinning so it won't take much if we can have near surface parcels become buoyant.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
Coordination call is underway so it should be out soon.

Since I'm now working later tonight thanks to this event, it does appear that there is a significant mass response ongoing that is allowing WAA to expand farther north into AL. Over here in Georgia, I'm still unconvinced the wedge erodes quickly and it will be more of a just-in-time erosion with a narrow axis of instability working into at least northwest Georgia before the line outpaces it. Everything will be spinning so it won't take much if we can have near surface parcels become buoyant.
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Tends to erode slowly, but not totally convinced it doesn't relent from western GA ahead of the QLCS. Like you said, it takes very little to get something on the ground, considering the kinematic space it'll be in later.
 
Clancy said:
Tends to erode slowly, but not totally convinced it doesn't relent from western GA ahead of the QLCS. Like you said, it takes very little to get something on the ground, considering the kinematic space it'll be in later.
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It's the one thing that is so hard to train into forecasters new to Georgia. The models always erode the wedge too quickly. It is a fickle and unyielding beast.

I agree and do think western Georgia gets in on the action. It doesn't take much instability ("recovery") to continue at least an isolated damaging wind/spin up threat in this environment, like you mentioned.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
It's the one thing that is so hard to train into forecasters new to Georgia. The models always erode the wedge too quickly. It is a fickle and unyielding beast.

I agree and do think western Georgia gets in on the action. It doesn't take much instability ("recovery") to continue at least an isolated damaging wind/spin up threat in this environment, like you mentioned.
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Yep, can't count the number of times we've been saved from what would've otherwise been a significant event by the turtle that is our CAD wedge.
 
Thanksgivingbrown said:
Don’t let this threat ruin your plans. The ingredients aren’t there for North Alabama to have significant tornadoes. While a quick spin up can’t be ruled out, this isn’t going to be an outbreak for our area. Just stay aware but nothing to be anxious about.
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Thank you, I appreciate the words of encouragement.
 
Sorry, I've gotten out of the habit of posting dumb tweets lately, but this is one I simply had to share. People literally died in Texas where there was a long track tornado, not to mention at least one significant touchdown in Mississippi yet some people have the b@lls to say "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency". Ugh...
sht.jpg
 
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