Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

Their track record with high risks has not been good for about 10 years, not to rehash the "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" debate but IMO all of them issued in that timeframe have underperformed expectations at least somewhat with the exception of 3/25/21 and 3/31/23.

Therefore, I don't think it matters a whole lot whether they issue it or not.
 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA, SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES, INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES, AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH THE WATCH PERIOD.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Their track record with high risks has not been good for about 10 years, not to rehash the "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" debate but IMO all of them issued in that timeframe have underperformed expectations at least somewhat with the exception of 3/25/21 and 3/31/23.

Therefore, I don't think it matters a whole lot whether they issue it or not.
Click to expand...
True
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Tornado warning for oak island
Click to expand...
Why is it only radar-indicated :confused:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
216 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Eastern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 300 PM CST.

* At 214 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Smith Point, or 10 miles east of La Porte, moving
northeast at 20 mph. This storm has previously produced a tornado.
Another is likely ongoing, but cannot be confirmed due to no
debris over the waters.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Smith Point around 220 PM CST.
Anahuac around 235 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Oak
Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

If on or near Galveston bay, get away from the water and move to
safe shelter immediately. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Severe thunderstorms can produce
large capsizing waves, even on small bodies of water. Move into dock
and seek safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.
Click to expand...
 
Todd said:
What is the main difference between a Moderate Risk and a High Risk that some people were hoping for?
Click to expand...

A high risk is the highest possible designation SPC can issue, it implies high confidence in widespread, significant severe weather usually including long-track, strong to violent tornadoes.
 
Todd said:
What is the main difference between a Moderate Risk and a High Risk that some people were hoping for?
Click to expand...
Only difference is the fancy colors. Otherwise, there's not much difference. Both feature high end severe weather and violent tornadoes. As @CheeselandSkies mentioned, a High Risk is for high confidence events like April 27th among others and high wind events like derechoes.
 
JPWX said:
Only difference is the fancy colors. Otherwise, there's not much difference. Both feature high end severe weather and violent tornadoes. As @CheeselandSkies mentioned, a High Risk is for high confidence events like April 27th among others and high wind events like derechoes.
Click to expand...

But a high risk *might* help encourage Mr. and Mrs. Nothing is Going to Happen to get off their butt and take shelter. Maybe.
 
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