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Severe Weather 2024

CheeselandSkies said:
Oh boy, now I have to go to the other weather forum for the snow weenie freakout.
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I'm not usually much of a snow weenie, though I wouldn't mind some lately, considering it's either been frigid and rainy or annoyingly muggy, neither of which have been ideal for Christmas time. That being said, Atlanta would probably collapse on itself, so maybe rain and storms are preferable.
 
I love snow, but forecasting it is a pain in the rear. I use to get so mad when it didn't snow. However, instead of looking at everything going for it to happen, I look at everything going against it happening first. That way I can mentally prepare myself if it fails to happen and the forecast busts. Believe it or not, that helps me a lot.
 
JPWX said:
I love snow, but forecasting it is a pain in the rear. I use to get so mad when it didn't snow. However, instead of looking at everything going for it to happen, I look at everything going against it happening first. That way I can mentally prepare myself if it fails to happen and the forecast busts. Believe it or not, that helps me a lot.
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I love it too but I've given up on it for the most part, it's the ultimate tease in weather! Agree though, it's a lot like forecasting tornadoes, it's a marvel that it *does* happen, not that it doesn't (unless you live in the Yukon I suppose I dunno).
 
Clancy said:
I love it too but I've given up on it for the most part, it's the ultimate tease in weather! Agree though, it's a lot like forecasting tornadoes, it's a marvel that it *does* happen, not that it doesn't (unless you live in the Yukon I suppose I dunno).
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I wish I could send y'all all of our snow, I'd be fine never seeing it again.
 
We interrupt this program to bring you..... Courage The Cowardly Dog

Jokes aside, the 18z GFS presents two opportunities for severe weather going forward. First around the 27th and then the other around the 31st. It looks like the 2nd storm system has a better moisture fetch and dynamics.
 

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JPWX said:
We interrupt this program to bring you..... Courage The Cowardly Dog

Jokes aside, the 18z GFS presents two opportunities for severe weather going forward. First around the 27th and then the other around the 31st. It looks like the 2nd storm system has a better moisture fetch and dynamics.
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We'll have to watch how far separated they remain. If they're too close together, could hinder moisture return on the second system. But broadly speaking, both look like they could bring unsettled weather.
 
00Z still has the big trough in roughly the same timeframe, this time with near-60 dews as far north as southeast Minnesota at 0Z New Year's Day (New Year's Eve local time). Overall instability is marginal as currently depicted but could still see a few rogue spinners verbatim. Obviously way out there yet and tons will change run to run but I'm not discounting anything after tornadoes in northern Wisconsin in December 2021 and the state's first February tornadoes on record earlier this year.
 
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Nothing against Waelti, but seems like I can't run or hide from that guy when I'm storm chasing. I run into him almost every chase I go on. Got really annoyed back in the Spring when he cut me off on the interstate exit ramp near Canton Mississippi. I was stuck behind him damn near all the way to Carthage on a double yellow 2 lane hwy. My last 2 chases were in Kansas and Minnesota back in the Summer...and ran into him both times. Dude literally chases every drop that falls from the sky
 
After several runs of a less impressive severe threat with the trough in the 28th-29th timeframe (too squished of a wavelength W-E/becomes negatively tilted too late), today's 12Z GFS raised the ceiling again with the classic broad wavelength/slightly negatively tilted look and corresponding greater surface response/broader warm sector. Something to track, at least.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
After several runs of a less impressive severe threat with the trough in the 28th-29th timeframe (too squished of a wavelength W-E/becomes negatively tilted too late), today's 12Z GFS raised the ceiling again with the classic broad wavelength/slightly negatively tilted look and corresponding greater surface response/broader warm sector. Something to track, at least.
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Yep, after a protracted period of unimpressive ejections, the latest run resembles the ones from a few days ago. Really wouldn't be surprised to see it drop off the face of the earth at least once more, but there will probably be something worth keeping an eye on by that time frame. Euro also shows a nice-looking system around the same time.
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I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the trough tilt. But regardless we should see a severe weather threat either around Christmas or post Christmas
 
JPWX said:
I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the trough tilt. But regardless we should see a severe weather threat either around Christmas or post Christmas
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If I remember correctly, December 10 2021 was the result of a very positively tilted trough. It makes me wonder how the moisture return was so strong for that system - was it already in place before the event unfolded?
 
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