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Hurricane Hurricane Milton

Last post of the evening:

No questions answered with respect to final landfall track. Most hurricane Models (HMON, HAFS) are in the Crystal River Camp, HWRF looks to be in the Clearwater camp and globals are preferring the southern solution around Sarasota and even points south.

Unfortunately, this spread doesn't help with evacuation efforts at all. So it's wait and see. We may not know until Monday.
 
Question. Is there a reason they seem to be issuing advisories for Milton every 6 hours instead of 3? I know they tend to do that with Invests, but once they become storms they usually up that to every 3 hours.
 
HWRF emerges it still at 958mb just south of St Augustine on the Atlantic side after a gulf side 944 landfall just north of Tampa. Mean path, and nothing below major hurricane the whole trip across. Ugly scenario.
 
I think if I lived in the peninsula, next week would seem like an excellent time to take a road trip north with a few million of my closest friends.
 
Clancy said:
Question. Is there a reason they seem to be issuing advisories for Milton every 6 hours instead of 3? I know they tend to do that with Invests, but once they become storms they usually up that to every 3 hours.
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They only do the intermediate advisories when watches/warnings are in effect. So there will probably be advisories every 3 hours starting tomorrow.
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 95.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
Hurricane Hunters just found pressure of 993 with 19knots of wind, extrapolating to 991 mb at the surface. This thing is strengthening quickly. I'm very afraid what the next 48 hours holds for what Milton will look like.
 
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06z Hurricane Models:

HWRF: Cat 4 into Pinellas County
HMON: Approaching Pinellas County as a Cat 3 then sharply turning north to landfall around Cedar Key as a weakening Cat 1
HAFS-A: Weakening from a Cat 5 to a Cat 1/2 before landfall in Pinellas County
HAFS-B: Weakening from a Cat 5 to a Cat 3 before landfall in Pinellas County

Really interested to see if the rapid intensification followed by rapid weakening actually happens. In the Gulf, I'm inclined much more in the first part and not so much in the second, but we will see.

In related news, the 8 AM intermediate advisory pushes Milton up to 60 mph and 991 mb.
 
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wx_guy said:
Really interested to see if the rapid intensification followed by rapid weakening actually happens. In the Gulf, I'm inclined much more in the first part and not so much in the second, but we will see.
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I'm really curious about that - I can't figure out what's changing environmentally that the model thinks would cause that weakening.
 
wx_guy said:
I keep seeing chat of dry air and shear, but I guess we will see. I'm not sold on either of those.
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Same - It would take a lot of both to make a sub-920mb storm weaken that fast. That would still be a horrible scenario surge-wise, as Katrina taught us, but weakening at landfall would sure be preferable to the straight-on hit from a Cat 5.
 
Looking rather like a quickly forming hurricane this morning on visible.
1728222798466.png
 
Good grief - just noticed B went sub 900 on the 06Z.

1728224266404.png
 
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