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Hurricane Hurricane Milton

JPWX said:
Also I just went back through the Atlantic hurricane seasons to 1950. It's the first time on record that you have 3 active Atlantic hurricanes at once on October 6th.
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Also obliterates standing records for activity in late September and early October.
 
Models are zeroing in on Tampa-area landfall. Whether it goes north or south of the Bay will have major implications for surge in Tampa/St Pete, but the likelihood of extreme impacts somewhere in the metro is looking very likely.

Although most hurricane models show rapid (and almost unprecedented) weakening just before landfall, HWRF has been very consistent in maintaining a low 940s hurricane right up until landfall.

Starting tonight, models will integrate the recon steering data north and east of the storm. We'll see how that changes the outcomes. RIght now, not looking good.
 
Also the Atlantic is now above normal ACE. The only basin that outpaces the Atlantic is the Western Pacific. However, compared to the normal ACE by this time (in parentheses), the Atlantic is ahead of both Pacific basins.
 

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lake.effect said:
Models are zeroing in on Tampa-area landfall. Whether it goes north or south of the Bay will have major implications for surge in Tampa/St Pete, but the likelihood of extreme impacts somewhere in the metro is looking very likely.

Although most hurricane models show rapid (and almost unprecedented) weakening just before landfall, HWRF has been very consistent in maintaining a low 940s hurricane right up until landfall.

Starting tonight, models will integrate the recon steering data north and east of the storm. We'll see how that changes the outcomes. RIght now, not looking good.
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I don’t quite buy the exceptional weakening that a lot of the models are seeing. Don’t really powerful hurricanes tend to hold off strong shear for a little bit before they begin weakening?
 
slenker said:
I don’t quite buy the exceptional weakening that a lot of the models are seeing. Don’t really powerful hurricanes tend to hold off strong shear for a little bit before they begin weakening?
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They can. Also one thing that has been something every major storm this season has done is tighten up closer to the coast regardless of shear. Francine, Beryl, Helene, Debby. It all has to do with the shape of the coast and angle the storm comes in at.
 
slenker said:
I don’t quite buy the exceptional weakening that a lot of the models are seeing. Don’t really powerful hurricanes tend to hold off strong shear for a little bit before they begin weakening?
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Also, as tough as models have it with successfully predicting Rapid Intensification, they have much more trouble successfully predicting Rapid Weakening.
 
slenker said:
I don’t quite buy the exceptional weakening that a lot of the models are seeing. Don’t really powerful hurricanes tend to hold off strong shear for a little bit before they begin weakening?
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I think both the ceiling and floor being modeled by HMON, HAFS, etc are overdone.

I don't think we'll see a 902mb monster and I don't think we'll see a 60mb drop in 9 hours either.

I think a 920mb storm 24 hours before landfall and a high 940s storm at landfall is reasonable.
 
Peak intensity nudged upward to 145mph in 4pm advisory. They state in discussion that
"Intensity guidance is
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus
model and still could be too low."
 
JPWX said:
Peak intensity nudged upward to 145mph in 4pm advisory. They state in discussion that
"Intensity guidance is
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus
model and still could be too low."
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Yikes
 
145 MPH forecast winds is indeed pretty remarkable. Very dangerous storm for Florida.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Am I reading this right that the models are pushing this to the early morning hours of Thursday?
 
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