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Hurricane Hurricane Milton

OUCH! In St Petersburg here, and actually worried about this one!

06z HWRF: 940 mb 125 mph into Tampa Bay
06z HMON: 937 mb 140 mph into Tampa Bay
06z HAFSA: 957 mb 90 mph into Tampa Bay, but has stiff weakening just before landfall from a Cat 4
06z HAFSB: 975 mb 75 mph into Tampa Bay

All 4 have a hurricane into the Tampa Bay Area, not good, especially after the area was just devastated by 8-9 feet of storm surge from Helene.

EDIT: This rare track (an eastward-moving storm coming from the western Gulf) is actually a worst-case scenario for Tampa Bay, too, as perpendicular tracks to the coast tend to maximize surge.
 
I expect regardless of strength, this is a major flood event for the peninsula. Much like Helene, this storm will be coming in to a VERY wet Florida that will have already gotten several inches of rain over the two days preceding landfall. Looks like another loop crossing monster - path will take it over deep warm waters. As wx_guy said, a perpendicular path to the coast is a really bad scenario - a path just north of Tampa being worst case as it would push the greatest surge into the bay and the winds would keep piling it up once it was there.
Looking at the daily models, 06Z GFS has that worse case scenario. But regardless of where it crosses the peninsula, there is going to be big surge south of there. GFS is hinting at a more NE track and about a 10 hour trip across the peninsula, which puts emergence up close to St. Augustine, putting some impacts into coastal GA. NAM is WAY south - like Cuba south. 06ZECMWF holds on to the Tampa track, with similar placement at 90hrs as the 0Z run at 96.
 
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Geez, already? That can't be good.
1728137745419.png
 
Although one that gets its act together early might be good for getting folks to pay attention and prepare.
 
Ensemble guidance locked in on Florida. Didn't expect it to be this organized this morning! Stay safe out there @wx_guy
1728141194063.png
 
I know we all want the gulf to have cooled after Helene, but to be honest we may have a problem on the current forecast path with the loop current. Plenty of heat potential.
1728142665217.png
 
Clancy said:
Ensemble guidance locked in on Florida. Didn't expect it to be this organized this morning! Stay safe out there @wx_guy
View attachment 30540
Click to expand...
Yeah, I'm in the middle of the cone this time. That's fun. The NHC says forecast error at 4-days out averages 150 miles, so we'll see how it changes. But not a good feeling!
 
AI is pretty cool...I took a screenshot of the GFS model run at hour 92 and asked GPT-4o to analyze the image to determine the expected surge impacts on the Tampa area. Here's what it generated:

"Tampa Bay Area Surge: Given the ENE motion and the storm's proximity to the coast, Tampa Bay is likely to experience significant storm surge impacts. The following factors contribute to surge potential:
  • Size of the Wind Field: The large wind field, with 50 kt+ winds extending well away from the center, will push a large volume of water toward the coast. Storm surge can be amplified in the shallow, bay-like topography of Tampa Bay.
  • Right-Front Quadrant Impact: If Tampa Bay falls within the right-front quadrant as the storm approaches, this would result in onshore winds that drive water into the bay, potentially leading to life-threatening storm surge.
  • Low Central Pressure: The low pressure (951 mb) combined with a large wind field suggests a powerful storm, capable of generating a surge of several feet, especially in the vulnerable, low-lying regions around Tampa Bay.

    Estimated surge impacts by specific location:
  • Tampa (Downtown / Bayshore Boulevard):
    • Revised Surge: 10 to 15 feet (higher due to closer proximity to the core winds and the bay’s funneling effect).
  • St. Petersburg / Pinellas County Beaches (Clearwater, St. Pete Beach):
    • Revised Surge: 6 to 9 feet (moderate reduction since these areas might be farther from the strongest winds).
  • MacDill Air Force Base:
    • Revised Surge: 8 to 11 feet (due to proximity to the bay and expected onshore flow).
  • Oldsmar (North Tampa Bay):
    • Revised Surge: 5 to 7 feet (since the winds will have decreased significantly by the time they reach this area).
  • Apollo Beach / Ruskin (South Shore of Tampa Bay):
    • Revised Surge: 9 to 12 feet (close proximity to the core winds and shallow bay effects).
 
lake.effect said:
AI is pretty cool...I took a screenshot of the GFS model run at hour 92 and asked GPT-4o to analyze the image to determine the expected surge impacts on the Tampa area. Here's what it generated:

"Tampa Bay Area Surge: Given the ENE motion and the storm's proximity to the coast, Tampa Bay is likely to experience significant storm surge impacts. The following factors contribute to surge potential:
  • Size of the Wind Field: The large wind field, with 50 kt+ winds extending well away from the center, will push a large volume of water toward the coast. Storm surge can be amplified in the shallow, bay-like topography of Tampa Bay.
  • Right-Front Quadrant Impact: If Tampa Bay falls within the right-front quadrant as the storm approaches, this would result in onshore winds that drive water into the bay, potentially leading to life-threatening storm surge.
  • Low Central Pressure: The low pressure (951 mb) combined with a large wind field suggests a powerful storm, capable of generating a surge of several feet, especially in the vulnerable, low-lying regions around Tampa Bay.

    Estimated surge impacts by specific location:
  • Tampa (Downtown / Bayshore Boulevard):
    • Revised Surge: 10 to 15 feet (higher due to closer proximity to the core winds and the bay’s funneling effect).
  • St. Petersburg / Pinellas County Beaches (Clearwater, St. Pete Beach):
    • Revised Surge: 6 to 9 feet (moderate reduction since these areas might be farther from the strongest winds).
  • MacDill Air Force Base:
    • Revised Surge: 8 to 11 feet (due to proximity to the bay and expected onshore flow).
  • Oldsmar (North Tampa Bay):
    • Revised Surge: 5 to 7 feet (since the winds will have decreased significantly by the time they reach this area).
  • Apollo Beach / Ruskin (South Shore of Tampa Bay):
    • Revised Surge: 9 to 12 feet (close proximity to the core winds and shallow bay effects).
Click to expand...
Yeah, Helene JUST broke records for surge, at about 8-9 feet of surge in the Tampa Bay Area. This looks to one-up that in a major way.
 
12z Hurricane Models are running. In the next 30-45 minutes, we should have an idea what doom they foretell.
 
When I think of Milton, I think of the bumbling character from the movie Office Space. Ironically, the actor that played Milton, Stephen Root, went to the University of Florida. I don’t want to think of Milton as a possible retired hurricane in the future.
 
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