Hurricane Hurricane Francine

[UncleJuJu98]

5% tornado risk for most of Alabama tomorrow

 

[Blountwolf]

Can't exactly call Francine's CoC small, huh?

 

[Blountwolf]

Rather lopsided - west side dominant as drier air wraps in from the south. The supercell-maker scenario seems plausible. She's going to pack some unexpected punches I'm afraid.

 

[Blountwolf]

Water rising at the barriers in New Orleans. So far nothing worse than a slightly higher than normal high tide - peaked at 9:45 am so far.
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitori...eriod=P7D&showMedian=false&timeSeriesId=62836




2pm edit - starting back up, even as the tide rolls out. Wind driven surge - still well below levels of concern, have had higher tides in the last week.

 

[lake.effect]

Lots of rotation offshore heading into the Gulfport/Biloxi region in the next hour.

 

[Blountwolf]

Laissez les bon temps rouler - Looks to me like Francine wants to go to Bourbon Street.

 

[Blountwolf]

Lots of rotation offshore heading into the Gulfport/Biloxi region in the next hour.

Yeesh. Yep. Lake Pontchartrain, Slidell, even West Bank as they wrap around as well. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

 

[Blountwolf]

Now it's getting close to that time we all love - trying to figure out the actual time of a "landfall" on the Louisiana coast, where land... well... it isn't really where the map says it is.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado watch is up.

 

[lake.effect]

That isolated cell just south of new orleans needs a warning soon.

 

[Blountwolf]

Francine seems to have wrapped up some as it approaches. I hate when they do that. Can't get over the size of that eye. Looks like it's trying to clear out.

 

[lake.effect]

^the large eye means New Orleans will likely see a part of the eyewall if not actual eye itself. Could be a rough night.

 

[Blountwolf]

Still a big slug of mid level dry air impacting the east side. Mixing out though. Out of time for it to be very meaningful, thankfully. She's not petite, huh?

 

[BayouWeatherGeek]

WDBU in New Orleans is livestreaming coverage

 

[lake.effect]

Radar velocities do not indicate this is a weakening storm at all. Impressive 115-120mph gusts aloft in the NE eyewall.

 

[Blountwolf]

Radar velocities do not indicate this is a weakening storm at all. Impressive 115-120mph gusts aloft in the NE eyewall.

No, sadly I think we're seeing one that tightens up as it makes landfall. I much prefer storms winding down as they approach - these tend to catch folks off guard, and also seem to me to translate effects to ground level more. I wonder if there is data to back up that impression or if it's just my impression?

 

[slenker]

No, sadly I think we're seeing one that tightens up as it makes landfall. I much prefer storms winding down as they approach - these tend to catch folks off guard, and also seem to me to translate effects to ground level more. I wonder if there is data to back up that impression or if it's just my impression?

It most certainly is supported by imagery of damage, that actively intensifying cyclones making landfall tend to be more intense at ground level.

 

[Clancy]

Certainly seems like bad news for LA, unfortunately.

 

[Blountwolf]

It most certainly is supported by imagery of damage, that actively intensifying cyclones making landfall tend to be more intense at ground level.

I'm hopeful looking at IR that Francine isn't actually intensifying very much - IR is a mess, but it wrapping itself up right now and trying to clear the eye was not on my expectations list. Hoping there isn't a resulting convection burst.

 

[JPWX]

The shape of the coastline combined with friction from the land helps the storm tighten up more (example of that was Sally). That's one of the things I've learned over the last few years. Also the angle of the storm approach and a trough of low pressure system can actually help ventilate the system more (example of that was Michael).