Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[CheeselandSkies]

HRRR for tomorrow painting a more QLCS storm mode.

Yep, not impressed with the way that's trended either. As of yesterday was planning to drive down to somewhere in central-southern IL or west-central-southwest IN for a chase. Probably won't at this point; but who knows, it could dramatically uptrend again in the morning.

 

[cg9450]

Oklahoma deserves the break

 

[CheeselandSkies]

From ST Discord:

one left split
i have never seen a tornado outbreak Atmospheric Anti-Climax by a single left split
that left split went from texas to kansas in 3 hours

 

[JPWX]

HRRR for tomorrow painting a more QLCS storm mode.

Yeah, but the 00z HRRR at hrs 26 thru 28 does have that supercellular look

 

[MMWX]

Yeah, but the 00z HRRR at hrs 26 thru 28 does have that supercellular look

I do agree for down near us. I was more or less referring to what everyone considered to be the "main threat" for Indiana.

I was just about to comment on the supercellular storm mode in the mid-south.

 

[hurricaneguy]

Im feeling better about things as we roll on. Great change of pace from the impending doom right before bed last night.

 

[MMWX]

Yep, not impressed with the way that's trended either. As of yesterday was planning to drive down to somewhere in central-southern IL or west-central-southwest IN for a chase. Probably won't at this point; but who knows, it could dramatically uptrend again in the morning.

If you want to gamble, you could go into the Arkansas delta and hope one of the supercells painted by the HRRR pans out. Plenty of good sightlines in Eastern Arkansas.

 

[JPWX]

I do agree for down near us. I was more or less referring to what everyone considered to be the "main threat" for Indiana.

I was just about to comment on the supercellular storm mode in the mid-south.

Ah okay

 

[tornado examiner]

Ok even I'm doubting an overnight disaster now. I think we are safe.

Now to focus on tomorrow. Which will almost certainly drop a major tornado outbreak given 2024’s weird track record

 

[CentralKyWeather]

Sunday afternoon in Western Kentucky continues to look interesting.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

At second look; 00Z HRRR does appear to pop a few supercells in a WNW-ESE oriented band from just south of St. Louis to Evansville, IN (wherever the outflow boundary/effective warm front sets up; expected to be somewhere in that general corridor, is the main focus of that part of the risk area in terms of supercell tornadoes) in the 22-00Z timeframe before they grow upscale.

 

[Maxis_s]

From ST Discord:

one left split
i have never seen a tornado outbreak Atmospheric Anti-Climax by a single left split
that left split went from texas to kansas in 3 hours

 

[MidTNWx]

Remember this?

 

[Maxis_s]

Remember this?

Oh my god YOU'RE RIGHT.

 

[tornado examiner]

This is the biggest moderate Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency this year isn’t it?

 

[jiharris0220]

Remember this?

I guess we all owe nadocast an apology, we should’ve let him cook.

 

[hurricaneguy]

Nadocast had this one pegged. Overcooked May 6th but this one was solid.

 

[MMWX]

I was clamoring for a high risk about a day ago just strictly looking at that crazy HRRR run. But even today, the CAMs were not in agreement at all as to what was going to happen. When there is that much model uncertainty, it really is hard to accurately forecast. I think a 15% hatched was a little overstated in hindsight, but it was justifiable. All the parameters were there, but the lack of a proper lifting mechanism for most areas prevented this event from seeing it's ceiling.

All the CAMs are a great tool, but some of us forget that they are tools to make a forecast. Forecasting is still very much a human job.

This event is still not over technically, but I don't anticipate anything crazy happening in eastern Kansas or western Missouri.

 

[TH2002]

Not gonna post any hilarious Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency tweets unless someone specifically requests it, but I think this video captures the current atmosphere of wxtwitter perfectly:

 

[jiharris0220]

I was clamoring for a high risk about a day ago just strictly looking at that crazy HRRR run. But even today, the CAMs were not in agreement at all as to what was going to happen. When there is that much model uncertainty, it really is hard to accurately forecast. I think a 15% hatched was a little overstated in hindsight, but it was justifiable. All the parameters were there, but the lack of a proper lifting mechanism for most areas prevented this event from seeing it's ceiling.

All the CAMs are a great tool, but some of us forget that they are tools to make a forecast. Forecasting is still very much a human job.

It really wasn’t overstated, they had every reason for a moderate, sometimes things just don’t pan out to what was forecasted.

Even though the failure modes were there, there’s hardly any event that doesn’t have them.

Had those storms in TX had remained discrete or developed further north, this would’ve been a completely different outcome.