I agree, but only from an analog standpoint. The same concerns with capping are still evident in my eyes - I wouldn’t entirely write off the CAMs yet if they’re still not showing much storm coverage. I mean, were there a whole lot of people saying May 20 2019 was going to be a major cap Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency?
Always love to see a Treycast before a potential event.
Though he did align with SPC for may 6, …
Yeah I’d expect one in the next couple hours once he looks at the models.
I mean, are we keeping score now? See my previous post. There is still so much we don’t know. The Mets and SPC know the ingredients but not the exact recipe.
Also, why in the world did May 6th not pan out? I don’t even know what the “failure” (for lack of a better word; wasn’t necessarily a failure) mode that ended up playing out was. Capping wasn’t an issue, was it?
Oh I know. Everyone was on board with spc for may 6 pretty much. Not knocking. Trey is great. I’ve seen him catch things spc didn’t and it turns out as he forecasted where as Spc was more aggressive
Andy had some good thoughts on why it didn’t pan out, seems to have been one of those mesoscale issues that are extremely hard to forecast. But I don’t think anyone has really done a “case study” yet.
Oh, that wasn’t what I meant. I meant more in the sense of there being uncertainties about the environment beyond the capping issue until the morning of 3 May—not the case here.
Gotcha. I still think something significant is going to happen tomorrow, I’m just fully on board with them not pulling the trigger on HIGH just yet.
Part of it was that the cap held in the high risk area because the timing of the trough ejection was off/too far away and it didn’t provide enough forcing to break the cap. There’s probably more technical mesoscale stuff too but I’m not smart enough to understand that.
Like they said, Ole storm coverage is a bit of an uncertainty. But if it’s widespread expect it.
Storms went upscale pretty quickly and the orientation of the dry line created unfavorable critical angles.
Sure, I don’t think they’re really gonna go day 2 high aside from like a 4/27/11-type slam dunk outbreak. I certainly wouldn’t write off the CAMs not convecting, but from a synoptic perspective the ingredients are there assuming we get storms.
With all those things happening at once, then, it’s still impressive to me that we got Barnsdall in the first place. That tornado is a reminder of how wicked that day could have been.
Barnsdall came about when enough forcing arrived and the cap finally gave out in the OWS and the cell was overlaid over the LLJ.
Indeed; that's why even limited convective coverage could prove devastating in environments like tomorrow's.
Yep. Had the squall line not swallowed it up, it’s no telling how long that tornado would’ve stayed on the ground.
