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Severe Weather Threat 5/19-5/22/2024

Fred Gossage said:
It may come down to uncertainty in number of tornadoes or not having a high enough confidence in specifically violent tornadoes. While EF2-EF3 tornadoes go toward the significant part of verification for a HIGH, they've verbalized on their personal Twitter accounts a few times since March 2021 that they really try to save HIGH events nowadays for when they have decent confidence in specifically violent tornadoes being involved. They can technically still go HIGH for high-end wind events, but their comments the past couple of years have made it sound like that may no longer be a thing, even if it's technically possible still.
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Has the SPC actually ever gone higher than MOD Risk for high-end wind events without significant tornadoes? I even thought MOD for high end wind with low tornado threats (like Sun) were exceedingly rare & only done due to Houston last week. I didn't think SPC used High Risk except for Tornado threats. I said High today for Tornadoes, not Wind &/ Hail.
 
Definitely a small CC drop as it passed over KRDK.
Edit: Warning is now TORR.
1716320530394.png
 
Storm to the south now exhibiting a new meso that could cause problems.
1716320946956.png
 
Could produce at any time, will likely move a few miles north of Villisca.
1716321136176.png
 
Possible CC drop.
1716321413423.png
 
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