When no high risk shows up tomorrow:
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Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Uptrend in the instability on the 00z HRRR
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Yeah... let's just say the HRRR has not exactly downtrended...
Parameters are freaking nuts in north Oklahoma at 00z.
Id say a high risk for north Oklahoma is a good call
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Northern sector (Kansas) is a lot more linear than previous runs but I do see 2-3 obvious supercells in northern Oklahoma.
The parameters look amazing and high end but if there are no storms there to take advantage then it’s just the atmosphere teasing us a little bit.
Whether there’s any crossover between the best parameters and actual supercells will most likely be resolved tomorrow and not on models IMO.
Not entirely sure since cells don't seem to form in the environment... but I think that's just CAMs being CAMs. I think it's a good call.
The entire warm sector is just... this...
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
But is that storm coverage enough for the SPC to justify a high risk?
jiharris0220
Member
Low level jet has uptrended substantially on this particular run.
aujerm
Member
there is definitely an uptick in convection across the area on the 00Z hrrr
TornadoFan
Member
If that many cells can form in north OK, I don't see why at least one or two can form further south when there's not much difference in the inversion.
jiharris0220
Member
Honestly for once I don’t think the hrrr is doing bad for convection, it’s actually one of the few cams that has convection firing all the way south in southern Oklahoma by 12am.
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Yeah, good points. CAMs have really wanted to line everything out very quickly this season. Thinking back to 4/26 in Nebraska especially. And that wasn’t even close to the case. Same thing with 4/27