Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28, 2024 - (Saturday, Sunday)

[Evan]

Yeah I can already smell that something is very wrong with the atmosphere

Mmm. It's very early. I expect things to look different over the next hour or two. But, there's certainly a bit lower confidence in regards to storm mode and the overall timing of ingredients lining up perfectly. Hence why we saw a moderate risk today.

 

[TornadoFan]

Some hooks developing on the OKC storms.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Some hooks developing on the OKC storms.

I was about to say, can the atmosphere around OKC recover enough between the current batch and the more primed storms later.

 

[Casuarina Head]

I think that today has higher potential for a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency than yesterday, but perhaps in the opposite direction, i.e., a lower-end outcome. Maybe TOR probabilities will end up closer to ENH than MDT, but overall MDT clearly seems the best call. I don’t even think that a localised HIGH TOR-wise will verify, given wind-based profiles, timing, and mergers. (Fortunately, the mere fact that suburban OKC is targeted does not automatically mean that another Moore ’13-type event is looming...)

 

[Evan]

I think the complex northwest of Stillwater has a decent chance of going gaga here in the next hour or two. Storm mode is cooperating enough for now.

 

[Equus]

It will probably be pretty tricky to get the forcing just right as the dynamics head in, threading the gap between better dynamics to get supercells dropping tornadoes and triggering massive upscale growth with the increased forcing leaves a rather narrow window for really long track truly isolated supercell tornadoes

 

[tornado examiner]

I think there is basically no chance in this event going high risk now..

 

[rushdude]

Even with all the fits that the twatterheads would pitch, today's a day I'd prefer to see a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.
Better to see a lower end event than a devastating outbreak

 

[Equus]

Meanwhile northern OK near the KS border looks good to go for some messy mode brief tornadoes in the short term, better helicity and bulk shear and all you need is some constructive mergers with the clustery cells to start tornado warning whack a mole

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

I think there is basically no chance in this event going high risk now..

there wasn’t that high of a chance in the first place….

 

[Fred Gossage]

Interestingly, what was an initially an evolving messy/linear storm mode over the past 60-90 minutes in northwest Texas has evolved back into supercells, and one of them has now gone tornado warned. We need to be careful today. Just because something looks like it's going messy for a short period doesn't necessarily mean you won't see a dominant supercell or two evolve out of it.

 

[Equus]

Yeah we saw an initially linear batch of storms break up into supercells that eventually dropped the Lincoln tornado and many more yesterday, convective evolution patterns will be a big thing to watch

 

[Maxis_s]

...what?

 

[Evan]

It will probably be pretty tricky to get the forcing just right as the dynamics head in, threading the gap between better dynamics to get supercells dropping tornadoes and triggering massive upscale growth with the increased forcing leaves a rather narrow window for really long track truly isolated supercell tornadoes

Timing an hour or two in either direction is going to be huge in this regard. As both you and Fred have mentioned...do we get enough overlap between increased shear and cooperative storm mode? So far it's looking like a great call by the SPC not to make the upgrade.

 

[jiharris0220]

Interestingly, what was an initially an evolving messy/linear storm mode over the past 60-90 minutes in northwest Texas has evolved back into supercells, and one of them has now gone tornado warned. We need to be careful today. Just because something looks like it's going messy for a short period doesn't necessarily mean you won't see a dominant supercell or two evolve out of it.

Fred, I’m actually becoming increasingly considered about today regarding storm mode.

The EML has been substantially stronger than forecasted by models, I’m really starting to wonder how late will these storms become linear, because the longer it takes the worse it is for OK.

 

[MidTNWx]

...what?

Broken scale...

Crazy how much of a bias Nadocast has towards urban areas.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

I think there may be some early “football” spiking here with the talk of “atmosphere struggling”. Within an hour yesterday things went from 0-100 and stayed that way for quite some time.

 

[Clancy]

I think there may be some early “football” spiking here with the talk of “atmosphere struggling”. Within an hour yesterday things went from 0-100 and stayed that way for quite some time.

If I recall there was also a weakening of the LLJ around this time, before re-strengthening later that was forecasted, as mentioned by Trey in his forecast video, among others.

 

[Equus]

The parameters look extreme if you're just going numerically so it's not a big shock to see those values going pretty wild, but the subtleties of the forecast in the realms of forcing, convective evolution, and 850/500 crossover & storm mode definitely make picking out the likelihood of a day actually going that extreme much more nuanced lol

Probably by 3:30 we'll have a good handle on where things are headed, still definitely a good bit of parameter space to sneak some big tornadoes in

 

[atrainguy]

I think there may be some early “football” spiking here with the talk of “atmosphere struggling”. Within an hour yesterday things went from 0-100 and stayed that way for quite some time.

I recall some discussion about why the storms were struggling so much at first in Nebraska, then the one cell hit Lincoln and it all went nuts after that. Personally dunno enough about the environment and atmosphere if conditions are similar to that moment yesterday though.