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Southeast Svr Wx threat April 8-11, 2024

Pass the coffee someone. Dealing with both a significant flash flood threat and now combined with a significant severe weather threat is stretching my brain cells.
 
Jackson's AFD:

Wednesday through Monday night...Wednesday will be a stormy day
across the ArkLaMs, as the main upper low/trough deepens over North
Texas/Oklahoma along with a surface low over Arkansas. The upper low
will eject out of Oklahoma and move into Missouri Wednesday through
Wednesday night. This current track of the upper low is a more
favorable track for severe weather across our area. The surface low
will track across Arkansas into Kentucky during this same time
frame. Storms will be ongoing to our west, along a pre-frontal
trough Wednesday morning and move across our area through the
afternoon into the evening hours. Strong deep layer shear along with
MU capes of 1000-1500 j/kg and mid level lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 c/km
will be present on Wednesday. SPC has already issued an enhanced risk
for most of the area and a moderate risk for areas along and south
of the I-20 corridor. All modes of severe are possible including
damaging wind gusts, large hail and strong tornadoes. The current
timing looks like it will be from late Wednesday morning into late
Wednesday evening before the front shifts east into Alabama. Heavy
rainfall will continue to be a risk on Wednesday also, with total
additional rainfall accumulations ranging from around 6-7 inches
across the Delta to around 2-4 inches in the Pine Belt region
through Wednesday evening. This heavy rainfall potential is already
being advertised in our graphics and social media.
Click to expand...
 
To me, for the the tornado threat, looks like everything will be embedded, you will probably see a bunch of short lived weak tornadoes with a few that might grow intense for a short time. Long track tornadoes do not seem to be much of an issue unless some cells can form near the coast and stay out out of the mass batch of storms.
 
KevinH said:
I wouldn’t doubt it at this point
Click to expand...

I would...too much uncertainty with lapse rates and storm mode at this point.

Now if we get great run-to-run consistency across multiple CAMS from here on depicting multiple long-track supercells ahead of the MCS, then yeah. But we're not there yet.
 
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