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Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

Edith said:
Why? Please elaborate
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Very bearish on the northern threat area (i.e. north of the Ohio River) even though some of the models are showing a decent sigtor threat there (more dangerous than the actual ENH areas on a lot of them).

The 3km NAM has been bullish on the sigtor threat in Ohio and even into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania since yesterday.
stp.us_ov.png
 
Justin Hindman Hindy said:
IMO, it has a complex of big showers and storms over Kentucky early, I would think that would stabilize the risk, and have the greatest risk over Central Tennessee, anyone else agree or am I just wrong here?
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Yeah that's plausible. The 3km NAM run I pulled that STP plot from doesn't generate a ton of crapvection over KY/TN earlier in the day while some of the other models show a more substantial MCS. I guess it's possible that higher threat further north is based on unrealistic assumptions about warm/moist advection and/or insolation.
 
I am going to continue to hope that the Tuesday part of this event falls through. Several states are having elections on the 2nd, and while these won't be large turnout elections at all, the stress of running them along with dealing with storms is not something I wish on anyone. Missouri and Mississippi are having state-wide elections, and Alabama has one district with a special election.
 
quite a bit of on & off rain in cincinnati over the next 24 hours so i suspect the limited northern extent of the d2 is just a confidence limitation at this time. a potent environment will certainly be present tomorrow (its only 9am but its already 65, we really don't get that too often this early in the year here) but i don't think models are gonna have a good grip on tomorrow's crapvection for at least 12 more hours
 
If the rest of the 12z models follow suite of the latest HRRR, we are in for a real ride.

1711978485983.png

This is an area averaged sounding through a fairly large section of the warm sector in IN/OH tomorrow afternoon. Not only is the thermodynamic profile nearly ideal - wind profiles have only trended stronger with a more consolidated surface low leading to more backing of the winds - I would say (in this particular run), this is the highest end environment we have seen since 3/31 of last year. Put a discrete supercell in this environment and violent tornadoes are easily a possibility.

Whats more... the HRRR does simulate a line of discrete and semi-discrete supercells through IN/OH with the rest of the WS clearer than previous runs.

1711978724336.png
The thing is that the upper air pattern in my opinion is highly supportive of discrete convection, especially considering the warm sector looks unstable and mostly uncapped. Therefore I would expect more CAMs to follow suite with this and also think the HRRR is not being a 'supercell printer' without good reason. At risk of sounding dramatic - if (and ONLY IF) this HRRR run verified exactly as shown above, we would be seeing an upper-echelon outbreak with multiple intense tornadoes, similar to some of the analogs I mentioned previously. I will be really watching the next CAM few runs very closely, as this last HRRR run was downright worrying. Really hoping we see trends away from this solution otherwise tomorrow could be properly bad. Interested to see the next D2 Update.
 
UK_EF4 said:
If the rest of the 12z models follow suite of the latest HRRR, we are in for a real ride.

View attachment 24566

This is an area averaged sounding through a fairly large section of the warm sector in IN/OH tomorrow afternoon. Not only is the thermodynamic profile nearly ideal - wind profiles have only trended stronger with a more consolidated surface low leading to more backing of the winds - I would say (in this particular run), this is the highest end environment we have seen since 3/31 of last year. Put a discrete supercell in this environment and violent tornadoes are easily a possibility.

Whats more... the HRRR does simulate a line of discrete and semi-discrete supercells through IN/OH with the rest of the WS clearer than previous runs.

View attachment 24567
The thing is that the upper air pattern in my opinion is highly supportive of discrete convection, especially considering the warm sector looks unstable and mostly uncapped. Therefore I would expect more CAMs to follow suite with this and also think the HRRR is not being a 'supercell printer' without good reason. At risk of sounding dramatic - if (and ONLY IF) this HRRR run verified exactly as shown above, we would be seeing an upper-echelon with multiple intense tornadoes, similar to some of the analogs I mentioned previously. I will be really watching the next CAM few runs very closely, as this last HRRR run was downright worrying. Really hoping we see trends away from this solution otherwise tomorrow could be properly bad. Interested to see the next D2 Update.
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With that line in Ohio, that rain mass to the south will block the energy from getting to that line if this verifies IMO
 
To me, everything is lining up for a bigger deal for North MS into Alabama. 12z HRRR has a SCP of 5.2 at my house. watch for the Enhanced Risk to get extended further south
 

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Look at those CIPS tornado probs! NCAR's CAM-based machine learning probabilities, which has generally performed well, shows a substantial risk for tornadoes across the OH valley during the afternoon, and a localized maximum for tornado threats in AL Tuesday evening. SREF also aggressive on the tornado threat tomorrow. CSU's ML-probs are a good bit more conservative, on the other hand. 12Z HRRR shows some of those more curved hodos that caught my attention on the 06Z CAM runs.
download.png1711979578983.png1711979586211.png1711979623841.pngsbcape_hodo.us_se.pngsevere_ml_day2_all_gefso_040312.png
 
Clancy said:
Look at those CIPS tornado probs! NCAR's CAM-based machine learning probabilities, which has generally performed well, shows a substantial risk for tornadoes across the OH valley during the afternoon, and a localized maximum for tornado threats in AL Tuesday evening. SREF also aggressive on the tornado threat tomorrow. CSU's ML-probs are a good bit more conservative, on the other hand. 12Z HRRR shows some of those more curved hodos that caught my attention on the 06Z CAM runs.
View attachment 24570
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this is flat out sinister with the local maxima right on top of cincinnati
 
12Z 3km NAM sounding from near Huntsville, AL. Would definitely support a tornado threat, especially as activity initially develops over AL in a fairly discrete-looking fashion.
nam4km_2024040112_033_34.74--86.14.pngref1km_ptype.us_se.png
 
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