• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2024

Well I'm glad we're not having a severe weather threat next week then.
 
MichelleH said:
Just off the top of my head -

May 27, 1973 - Multi-state outbreak that included the F4 Centreville/Brent tornado
February 16, 1995 - Joppa/Arab F3 tornado
April 8, 1998 - F5 that went through Tuscaloosa/Jefferson/St. Clair counties

All three of those tornadoes were deadly.
Click to expand...
I also know in '95 that the Anderson Hills F4 happened 3 months later on 5/18, and the infamous First week of May 2003 Tornado fest with the Jackson, TN F4 on 5/4 also was post-Nino going into Neutral the following winter.
 
In reference to Trey's Analogs: Here's what I've found for 1966 thru 1995. When I finish 1998, 2010, and 2016, I'll post it below.

Part 1 (1966,1973,1995):

1966:

  • ENSO: Strong El Nino
  • SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) Value: 1.0 (February-April), 0.7 (March-May)
  • ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) Value: 1.0 (February-April), 0.7 (March-May)
  • U.S. TOR COUNT: 593 (185 EF2+)
  • AL: 10 (5 EF2+)
  • TOTAL TORNADO COUNT (MARCH-APRIL): 3 (No tornadoes in May)
  • MS: 38 (10 EF2+)
  • TOTAL TORNADO COUNT (MARCH-MAY): 17 (6 EF2+)
  • U.S. SEVERE WIND COUNT: 658
  • U.S. SEVERE HAIL COUNT: 556 (145 2+ INCH SIZE)
  • ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Above Average)
  • Total Systems: 17
  • Total Tropical Storms: 15
  • Hurricanes: 7
  • Major Hurricanes: 3
  • Notable Storms: Alma, Faith, and Inez
  • EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Above Average)
  • Total Systems: 18
  • Total Tropical Storms: 13
  • Hurricanes: 8
  • Major Hurricanes: 0
  • Notable Storms: Connie, Adele, and Helga
  • WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON: (Well Above Average)
  • Total Systems: 51
  • Total Tropical Storms: 30
  • Typhoons: 20
  • Super Typhoons: 3
  • Notable Storms: Irma, Kit, Tess, Alice, Cora, Elsie, Ida, Kathy, Pamela
1973:

  • ENSO: Strong El Nino that rapidly transitioned to a Strong La Nina
  • SOI/ONI Value: 0.5 (February-April), -0.1 (March-May)
  • U.S. TOR COUNT: 1,114 (399 EF2+)
  • AL: 46 (30 EF2+)
  • TOTAL TORNADO COUNT (March-May): 25 (17 EF2+)
  • MS: 44 (28 EF2+)
  • TOTAL TORNADO COUNT (March-May): 16 (14 EF2+)
  • U.S. SEVERE WIND COUNT: 1,602
  • U.S. SEVERE HAIL COUNT: 807 (150 2+ INCH SIZE)
  • ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Below Average)
  • Total Systems: 24
  • Total Tropical Storms: 8
  • Hurricanes: 4
  • Major Hurricanes: 1
  • Notable Storms: Delia, Ellen, Fran, and Gilda
  • EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Below Average)
  • Total Systems: 18
  • Total Tropical Storms: 12
  • Hurricanes: 7
  • Major Hurricanes: 3
  • Notable Storms: Ava, Doreen, Emily, Irah
  • WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON: (Below Average)
  • Total Systems: 39
  • Total Tropical Storms: 21
  • Typhoons: 12
  • Super Typhoons: 3
  • Notable Storms: Billie, Dot, Marge, Nora, Patsy, Ruth
****Notable Aspect: All three (Atlantic, East Pacific, and West Pacific) basins had below normal tropical activity in 1973*****

1995:

  • ENSO: Moderate La Nina
  • SOI/ONI Value: 0.5 (February-April), 0.3 (March-May)
  • MEI (Multi-Variate ENSO Index): 0.14 (February-March), 0.18 (March-April), 0.16 (April-May)
  • U.S. TOR Count: 1,253 (138 EF2+)
  • AL: 37 (3 EF2+)
  • TOTAL TORNADO COUNT (March-May): 17 (1 EF2+)
  • MS: 45 (7 EF2+)
  • TOTAL TORNADO COUNT (March-May): 35 (5 EF2+)
  • U.S. SEVERE WIND COUNT: 7,768
  • U.S. SEVERE HAIL COUNT: 3,759 (540 2+ INCH SIZE)
  • ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Above Normal)
  • Total Systems: 21
  • Total Tropical Storms: 19
  • Hurricanes: 11
  • Major Hurricanes: 5
  • Notable Storms: Allison, Erin, Felix, Iris, Jerry, Luis, Marilyn, Opal, Roxanne
  • EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Well Below Normal)
  • Total Systems: 11
  • Total Tropical Storms: 10
  • Hurricanes: 7
  • Major Hurricanes: 3
  • Notable Storms: Adolph, Barbara, Flossie, Henriette, Ismael, Juliette
  • WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON: (Slightly Below Normal)
  • Total Systems: 47
  • Total Tropical Storms: 24
  • Typhoons: 8
  • Super Typhoons: 5
  • Notable Storms: Faye, Kent, Oscar, Ryan, Sibyl, Ted, Zack, Angela
 
Part 2 (1998, 2010, 2016)

1998:

  • ENSO: Strong La Nina
  • SOI/ONI Value: -1.1 (February-April), -1.0 (March-May)
  • MEI Value: 2.3 (February-March), 2.5 (March-April), 2.3 (April-May)
  • U.S. TOR COUNT: 1,440 (169 EF2+)
  • AL: 50 (3 EF2+)
  • TOTAL TORNADO COUNT (April-May): 26 (3 EF2+) No tornadoes in March
  • MS: 14
  • TOTAL TORNADO COUNT (April): 4 No tornadoes in March or May
  • U.S. SEVERE WIND COUNT: 4,865
  • U.S. SEVERE HAIL COUNT: 5,185 (657 2+ INCH SIZE)
  • ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Above Normal)
  • Total Systems: 14
  • Total Tropical Storms: 14
  • Hurricanes: 10
  • Major Hurricanes: 3
  • Notable Storms: Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Georges, Mitch, Nicole
  • EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Average)
  • Total Systems: 16
  • Total Tropical Storms: 13
  • Hurricanes: 9
  • Major Hurricanes: 6
  • Notable Storms: Blas, Darby, Estelle, Howard, Isis, Lester, Madeline
  • WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON: (Well Below Normal)
  • Total Systems: 31
  • Total Tropical Storms: 16
  • Typhoons: 8
  • Super Typhoons: 3
  • Notable Storms: Rex, Stella, Todd, Vicki, Yanni, Zeb, Babs, Dawn, Faith
2010:

  • ENSO: Strong La Nina
  • SOI/ONI Value: 0.9 (February-April), 0.4 (March-May)
  • MEI Value: 1.31 (February-March), 0.49 (March-April), -0.2 (April-May)
  • U.S. TOR COUNT: 1,336 (191 EF2+)
  • AL: 40 (11 EF2+)
  • TOTAL TORNADO COUNT (March-April): 19 (7 EF2+) No tornadoes in May
  • MS: 41 (16 EF2+)
  • TOTAL TORNADO COUNT (March-May): 19 (8 EF2+)
  • U.S. SEVERE WIND COUNT: 15,593 (135 with greater than 75mph winds)
  • U.S. SEVERE HAIL COUNT: 7,673 (668 2+ INCH SIZE)
  • ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Above Average)
  • Total Systems: 21
  • Total Tropical Storms: 19
  • Hurricanes: 12
  • Major Hurricanes: 5
  • Notable Storms: Alex, Earl, Igor, Karl, Paula, Richard, Tomas
  • EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Well Below Average)
  • Total Systems: 13
  • Total Tropical Storms: 8
  • Hurricanes: 3
  • Major Hurricanes: 2
  • Notable Storms: Agatha, Celia, Darby, Frank, Georgette, Omeka
  • WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON: (Well Below Average)
  • Total Systems: 28
  • Total Tropical Storms: 14
  • Typhoons: 7
  • Super Typhoons: 1
  • Notable Storms: Conson, Chanthu, Kompasu, Meranti, Fanapi, Malakas, Megi, Chaba
2016:

  • ENSO: Weakening Strong El Nino to Weak La Nina
  • SOI/ONI Value: 1.6 (February-April), 0.9 (March-May)
  • MEI Value: 1.32 (February-March), 1.34 (March-April), 1.26 (April-May)
  • U.S. TOR COUNT: 990 (109 EF2+)
  • AL: 65 (12 EF2+)
  • TOTAL TORNADO COUNT (March-April): 22 (3 EF2+) No tornadoes in May
  • MS: 46 (5 EF2+)
  • TOTAL TORNADO COUNT (March-April): 7 No tornadoes in May
  • U.S. SEVERE WIND COUNT: 15,647 (157 with greater than 75mph winds)
  • U.S. SEVERE HAIL COUNT: 7,288 (785 2+ INCH SIZE)
  • ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Above Average)
  • Total Systems: 16
  • Total Tropical Storms: 15
  • Hurricanes: 7
  • Major Hurricanes: 4
  • Notable Storms: Earl, Hermine, Julia, Matthew, Nicole, Otto
  • EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Well Above Normal)
  • Total Systems: 23
  • Total Tropical Storms: 22
  • Hurricanes: 13
  • Major Hurricanes: 6
  • Notable Storms: Darby, Javier, Lester, Madeline, Newton, Paine, Otto
  • WEST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON: (Average)
  • Total Systems: 51
  • Total Tropical Storms: 26
  • Typhoons: 13
  • Super Typhoons: 6
  • Notable Storms: Nepartak, Mirinae, Nida, Lionrock, Meranti, Malakas, Megi, Chaba, Songda, Sarika, Haima, Nock-ten
 
ashtonlemleywx said:
Click to expand...

Can we possibly avoid another severe weather threat around March 23rd again? I really want to be able to make it to this year's Severe Storm Symposium at MS State!
 
KevinH said:
Where do you see March 23?
Click to expand...
I don't see a threat around that time yet, but I'm just saying that I'm hoping we don't have a threat around that time
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Gfs is so active. , a threat could easily pop up on models on that date
Click to expand...
And it would be my luck that it will. LOL!

I'm great friends with the vice president over the Symposium and we've joked that the Severe Storm Symposium is just a open invitation for severe weather.
 
IIRC, most of Convective Chronicles' analogs (and his prediction for this year) showed pretty consistently an unusual early season tornado outbreak in the lower Great Lakes. Considering we did have an unusual notable severe event that resulted in a decent amount of tornadoes across IL, IN, OH, and MI only days after that video came out, I wonder if that's just a coincidence, or if perhaps that may be foreshadowing for a strong uptick in severe weather around here later this season like he was suggesting.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top