Winter Weather/Extreme Cold Threat 1/13-1/17

[UncleJuJu98]

3K nam for 6 pm Monday. Looks pretty dry for I-20/59 area. Am I missing something.

3km is notoriously bad at being overly dry, that'd be nice if that verified. But I highly highly doubt that'll be the case.

 

[TileDude]

3km is notoriously bad at being overly dry, that'd be nice if that verified. But I highly highly doubt that'll be the case.

What is the best model to use in this situation

 

[UncleJuJu98]

What is the best model to use in this situation

I would say HRRR just because that's my go to when your this close to a event. But I'm not 100% on winter weather and how many models handle it.

 

[MikeP]

What is the best model to use in this situation

I think pretty soon it's just going to be the thermometer and radar trends honestly.....

 

[Blountwolf]

Yeah, it's time to watch this one. That 32 degree surface line nosed well in to Alabama now. I think for once we're getting a cold nose that's stronger.

 

[Blountwolf]

Looks like the freezing line is moving in quicker than forecasted.

Which is why I was watching Haleyville with interest. Temp dropped fast.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Which is why I was watching Haleyville with interest. Temp dropped fast.

I didn't realize that that was the upper level freezing lines as well. Lol I thought surface then I realized it wasn't and deleted my post lol. Maybe some areas will get more snow than ice

 

[Blountwolf]

I didn't realize that that was the upper level freezing lines as well. Lol I thought surface then I realized it wasn't and deleted my post lol. Maybe some areas will get more snow than ice

That's all surface observations - Air temp, Wet bulb, and dewpoint. I just plot the 32 degree line for each.

 

[Blizzard1]

Which is why I was watching Haleyville with interest. Temp dropped fast.

Yeah I was watching them too. They always seem to be abnormally colder than one would think for these events. They definitely have a really cold wet bulb temp already too.Just can’t seem to make that air budge fast enough they seem to get though.

 

[JPWX]

Already 28 here in Smithville. Forecasted low tonight is 24. Tomorrow's high is 28. It'll be colder.

 

[Blountwolf]

Starkville and Columbus also just dropped below freezing. They were in the 40s at 1pm. This is a really cold-side system so far.

 

[WesL]

When it came through NW Arkansas, it was like an anchor dropping off a ship. The temps plummeted quickly. Really hoping it doesn't ice up down in MS, AL, TN

 

[UncleJuJu98]

23z HRRR has some extreme precip rates in north Mississippi at the last frame. That band seems to be more heavier than the long range hrrr run.

 

[Blountwolf]

Jackson, MS has dropped 11 degrees in the last 4 hours, from 45 to 34. The cold side of this one is winning, handily.

 

[wx_guy]

Here's the latest HREF. It keeps the snow mostly in the top counties of Alabama and mostly in Tennessee as it moves across the Deep South (the blue line is the forecasted freezing line). The projected *maximum* ensemble freezing rain is shown also, so consider it a reasonable worst case scenario, painting much of the central Deep South (but a pretty narrow band) in 0.1 in of freezing rain. This isn't a huge amount of freezing rain but could definitely mess with travel. I doubt they'll be many power issues, though.

 

[wx_guy]

I should add that a new HREF will run shortly.

 

[Blountwolf]

South of Memphis:

 

[Blountwolf]

Snowing in Nashville, positively dumping on Memphis.

 

[StormStalker]

Seems like it started a little earlier than they were forecasting. We’ve been getting a good bit of sleet starting to mix with snow over the last 30 minutes or so. It’s starting to stick some. My car is iced over pretty good though.

 

[MikeP]

Nice and balmy 46 degrees IMBY lol. Forecasted low is about 30. We'll see I guess....