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Winter Weather/Extreme Cold Threat 1/13-1/17

Blountwolf said:
Yep yep - definitely a warm nose. It just needs to lose the fight a little further south please. 66 in Baton Rouge, 18 in Memphis. Combat indeed.

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Yes I know us vets here have been through the wringer on the snow battles in these parts. I was hoping your snow nose could kick in and beat the warm nose and who knows…it might still but the bright Sunny weather today is not a good lead in as I expect to get max hearing here then have the clouds cap off the cooling tonight. That’s a small portion of the overall battle but we are going to need all the positives here we can get.

Yes there is still a chance for some surprises but I guess being a lifer of the I-20 area, I’m a bit cynical on what we will wind up with out of this.
 
Blizzard1 said:
Yes I know us vets here have been through the wringer on the snow battles in these parts. I was hoping your snow nose could kick in and beat the warm nose and who knows…it might still but the bright Sunny weather today is not a good lead in as I expect to get max hearing here then have the clouds cap off the cooling tonight. That’s a small portion of the overall battle but we are going to need all the positives here we can get.

Yes there is still a chance for some surprises but I guess being a lifer of the I-20 area, I’m a bit cynical on what we will wind up with out of this.
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I will say that is a much deeper well of arctic air than we usually get to work with, and it's been producing snow all day in OK and AR so the snow cover area is moving southeast. With that said, it's also a warmer GOM. So it's like both combatants on the field have more to work with than we're used to seeing. It's going to be quite a system. I am hoping for all snow or all rain at this point, but I know the line has to be somewhere. It's going to be slippery on Tuesday BHM north I'm thinking, regardless. I'm going to optimistically go with Morris, AL being the dividing line between ZR and snow. Keeping hope.
 
Blountwolf said:
I will say that is a much deeper well of arctic air than we usually get to work with, and it's been producing snow all day in OK and AR so the snow cover area is moving southeast. With that said, it's also a warmer GOM. So it's like both combatants on the field have more to work with than we're used to seeing. It's going to be quite a system. I am hoping for all snow or all rain at this point, but I know the line has to be somewhere. It's going to be slippery on Tuesday BHM north I'm thinking, regardless. I'm going to optimistically go with Morris, AL being the dividing line between ZR and snow. Keeping hope.
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Also it strikes me how long duration this is going to be. The potential for it to do unpredicted things seems high. Snow line further north or south, surface freezing line further north or south - lots of chances for this to go either way. No shortage of warm nose moisture, no shortage of cold arctic air coming in - just a question of where the lines set up and where they move.
 
Blountwolf said:
I will say that is a much deeper well of arctic air than we usually get to work with, and it's been producing snow all day in OK and AR so the snow cover area is moving southeast. With that said, it's also a warmer GOM. So it's like both combatants on the field have more to work with than we're used to seeing. It's going to be quite a system. I am hoping for all snow or all rain at this point, but I know the line has to be somewhere. It's going to be slippery on Tuesday BHM north I'm thinking, regardless. I'm going to optimistically go with Morris, AL being the dividing line between ZR and snow. Keeping hope.
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Yeah there are definitely a lot of real time obs we are going to have to factor in to get a clear read on this one but I could absolutely see your Morris cut off point happening as well. I’d take a “south of Bessemer/McCalla” cut off myself…being selfish but yes we do have some different than normal players on the field too here.

What you pointed out above all is the ice. I would absolutely take snow or nothing. I’d love for it to be one of those wet snow events that stacked up on lawns but had the streets clear. The zr aspect is highly unwanted but I’m afraid that it’s still taking shape at the moment.
 
18 and snowing now in Little Rock. I would be surprised if those leading returns are hitting the ground.
 
So it is reaching the ground. I stand corrected. Tupelo? A little ahead of schedule I'd say.
 
MikeP said:
Was precip expected this early?
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MEG (Memphis) did state in previous discussions snow starting during the afternoon, but I don't think they expected this much.
 
MikeP said:
Was precip expected this early?
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12Z HRRR caught the orientation of it pretty well. This is 2pm. Definitely more moisture than it expected though. 18Z run the moisture is ahead of by about 3 hours.

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These snow showers are just adding more moisture and cooling the column
 
So winds out of the NW. Are they expected to die down this evening? The front is not that far away currently....
Edit: I guess more out of the west for my area. 6-7mph....
 
Sleet in Oxford. Not my image - Credit North Mississippi Storm Chasers.

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