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Severe Weather 2023

Last few runs of the GFS look quite different compared to earlier runs. Latest 12Z NAM, which runs up until 00Z Tuesday, looks more aggressive.
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Nam is
Clancy said:
Last few runs of the GFS look quite different compared to earlier runs. Latest 12Z NAM, which runs up until 00Z Tuesday, looks more aggressive.
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Nam is definitely more impressive in the two comparative runs. But we also got to remember it's the tail end of the NAM, I'd love to see a few more runs with also a similar solution in the euro as well
 
12Z Euro with a rather stormy look. 18Z NAM continues to have potent look moving into Tuesday morning, but instability on most of the models still lacking.
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Remember folks. You don't have to have 1000+ CAPE to have a severe threat across the South plus a strong low level jet would compensate for the lack of instability.
 
JPWX said:
Remember folks. You don't have to have 1000+ CAPE to have a severe threat across the South plus a strong low level jet would compensate for the lack of instability.
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Certainly. Would want to see something a little higher in terms of confidence in the usual high-shear low-CAPE event in the South but it never takes much. The wind fields also look quite conducive at the end of the 18Z NAM (pictured is from north-central LA).
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MichelleH said:
I just hope it waits until after my medical test Tuesday morning.
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Is it just me or does it always seem like you have appointments or something when there's severe weather?
 
12z Euro has a pretty stout squall line along with a strong jet at both 500mb and 250mb.
 

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KevinH said:
I will take squall over discrete any day lol
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Hardly ever get discrete supercells in the winter, it's typically broken QCLS tornado events. Which seems the probable route. Even a regular QCLS can produce low end tornado outbreaks sometimes.
Not that this will turn out as one. But I think we should keep our eyes peeled most winter events are messy and more QCLS'esk. And this one looks to fit the bill.

Really think the best area will likely be Mississippi. Once that sun falls the little instability left in the atmosphere will drop off a cliff. If this system can get deeper you may be looking at dynamic cooling which will help to destabilize things a bit more, but in the winter there's not a whole lot to work with in terms of any substantial instability.


*Although looking at the 00z Nam it looks like the main gist of the storms come through at night in Mississippi and still have a decent bit of instability (for a winter event) in place.
 
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Interesting how the GFDL max updraft helicity are further north away from the coast.
 

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UncleJuJu98 said:
Hardly ever get discrete supercells in the winter, it's typically broken QCLS tornado events. Which seems the probable route. Even a regular QCLS can produce low end tornado outbreaks sometimes.
Not that this will turn out as one. But I think we should keep our eyes peeled most winter events are messy and more QCLS'esk. And this one looks to fit the bill.

Really think the best area will likely be Mississippi. Once that sun falls the little instability left in the atmosphere will drop off a cliff. If this system can get deeper you may be looking at dynamic cooling which will help to destabilize things a bit more, but in the winter there's not a whole lot to work with in terms of any substantial instability.


*Although looking at the 00z Nam it looks like the main gist of the storms come through at night in Mississippi and still have a decent bit of instability (for a winter event) in place.
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There have been plenty winter events with discrete mode being the main…. But you got have higher end instability. January 1999. February 2008 name few top my head
 
MichelleH said:
The Enigma Outbreak of 1884 was in February and there have been lots of higher-end, destructive tornadoes during the winter months. They don't really "follow the rules."
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12/10/21...that is all.

But yes, it does require the ingredients to actually come together in a favorable fashion, just like any other time of year.
 
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