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Severe Weather 2023

UncleJuJu98 said:
Euro and GFS operational runs on board with a doozy. I'm starting to get excited let's see 2 more days of consistency and I'm all on board. May be a low cape setup but I'm all on board for a sub 1000mb low and a bowling ball in the 500s.
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Pictures for us lay folk? Lol
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Euro and GFS operational runs on board with a doozy. I'm starting to get excited let's see 2 more days of consistency and I'm all on board. May be a low cape setup but I'm all on board for a sub 1000mb low and a bowling ball in the 500s.
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Yeah. Maybe time for me come out of hibernation ….
 
KevinH said:
Thank you.

Yeah can’t say I’m a fan of THAT :oops: . I don’t understand these all that well BUT it looks like a low (bc of the lines close together lol) coming through Dixie. Looks like it COULD be… uh.. ACTIVE
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Not sold on a big event as of now, but I would say a look like this might bring some severe weather somewhere in the Southeast
 
Latest Day 4 thru 8 discussion from SPC:
 

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KevinH said:
What does this look like NOW? @JPWX
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Still in good shape. SPC is beginning to hint at a severe weather threat late next week timeframe (12th to 14th). I'm not relying on the forecast models yet as they are still all over the place but just on my gut instincts. The CIPS analog guidance is also hinting at a increase.
 
LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023

Southwesterly low level flow sets up in earnest and strengthens
Wednesday night into the weekend. This may take us back to a more
active convective and rainfall pattern. Models hint at maybe some
stronger storms sometimes over the weekend, but models are quite
different on when that might occur exactly right now.
 
Newest GFS run is rather intriguing. Low/Mid cape and shear event. Rather zonal.

Not overly impressed by the setup, I think the highest chance for severe weather will be closest to the Gulf or southern half of the Southeast.
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
Newest GFS run is rather intriguing. Low/Mid cape and shear event. Rather zonal.

Not overly impressed by the setup, I think the highest chance for severe weather will be closest to the Gulf or southern half of the Southeast.
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That's usually how it works during El Nino, but that's not always the case.
 
JPWX said:
Still in good shape. SPC is beginning to hint at a severe weather threat late next week timeframe (12th to 14th). I'm not relying on the forecast models yet as they are still all over the place but just on my gut instincts. The CIPS analog guidance is also hinting at an increase.
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I have noticed the slight uptick as well.

Too early to create a thread though hahahahahaha
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Newest GFS run is rather intriguing. Low/Mid cape and shear event. Rather zonal.

Not overly impressed by the setup, I think the highest chance for severe weather will be closest to the Gulf or southern half of the Southeast.
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That’s what the CIPS that someone posted said as well.

Will be interesting to see how things evolve in the coming days.
 
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