Severe Weather 2023

[notsoencrypted]

7.88"! And the previous record for September was 5.83" in 1960. Wow.

 

[warneagle]

The shots of the water coming into the subway stations from above are basically my worst nightmare

 

[KevinH]

The shots of the water coming into the subway stations from above are basically my worst nightmare

Here I am thinking you meant the restaurant omg

 

[JPWX]

September 28th to my wx text group: "Mark it down. I expect our first Fall severe weather threat roughly October 14th thru 26th."

12z GFS today valid the 17th:

@JBishopwx @ashtonlemleywx

 

[UncleJuJu98]

September 28th to my wx text group: "Mark it down. I expect our first Fall severe weather threat roughly October 14th thru 26th."

12z GFS today valid the 17th:

@JBishopwx @ashtonlemleywx

Nasty look, any ensemble support from GEFS or EPS?

That would be incredibly early fall event in Alabama standards haha.

 

[JPWX]

Nasty look, any ensemble support from GEFS or EPS?

That would be incredibly early fall event in Alabama standards haha.

Not particularly at this time, but I'm kinda going with my gut feeling on this than model data at this time.

 

[KevinH]

September 28th to my wx text group: "Mark it down. I expect our first Fall severe weather threat roughly October 14th thru 26th."

12z GFS today valid the 17th:

@JBishopwx @ashtonlemleywx

This one looks like it may have to be watched for MS/AL/GA????

Dixie Alley may be about to wake up.

 

[JPWX]

This one looks like it may have to be watched for MS/AL/GA????

Dixie Alley may be about to wake up.

Well, with the dreams I've been having recently about floods and being under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, something is bound to happen soon.

 

[KevinH]

Well, with the dreams I've been having recently about floods and being under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, something is bound to happen soon.

Right… Tis the (severe) season!

 

[Timhsv]

September 28th to my wx text group: "Mark it down. I expect our first Fall severe weather threat roughly October 14th thru 26th."

12z GFS today valid the 17th:

@JBishopwx @ashtonlemleywx

If that verifies then WOW......

 

[KevinH]

If that verifies then WOW......

Right. Fortunately, it is still two weeks away.

But I think most of us know Dixie doesn’t follow the rules and does whatever it wants anyway sooooo

It will be interesting to see how Oct-Dec plays out in Dixie.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Right. Fortunately, it is still two weeks away.

But I think most of us know Dixie doesn’t follow the rules and does whatever it wants anyway sooooo

It will be interesting to see how Oct-Dec plays out in Dixie.

Personally I am going to let it get in euro range before I get interested, but we are definitely heading toward time period of fall severe weather ….

 

[KevinH]

Personally I am going to let it get in euro range before I get interested, but we are definitely heading toward time period of fall severe weather ….

Yep! Not worth a lot TWO WEEKS away, but something to mention so we aren’t bored hahahaha

 

[gregassagraf]

Supercell intercepted by Maycon Zanata in southern Brazil, near the city of Santa Rosa, RS state. This event happened on September 3rd 2023.




Quite the structure on this storm. I would appreciate hearing from more experienced storm chasers. From the looks of this storm, would it be able to produce a TOR under the right circumstances? The environment this storm encountered was very favorable for tornado production; the parameters were close to those of the Tangará tornado back in 2020. Fortunately, for the regular folk, no tornado was recorded in this 2023 event. However, given the appearance of many supercells that day, it makes me wonder if a tornado occurred but went off the record books.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Something's brewing in the voodoo land of the euro and GFS 8-9 days out. Even some ensemble support. I think you where a 100 hours too far in your prediction @JPWX lol.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Big ole oof from the Euro lol. Probably change but wouldn't be surprised if a shot of severe happen around the time frame.

 

[KevinH]

Big ole oof from the Euro lol. Probably change but wouldn't be surprised if a shot of severe happen around the time frame. View attachment 21744

Ooooo AND it’s on Friday the 13th…

SHOCKER!

 

[JPWX]

Big ole oof from the Euro lol. Probably change but wouldn't be surprised if a shot of severe happen around the time frame. View attachment 21744

Well it's just a day off from my timeframe. LOL! Still a pretty good call if this verifies.

 

[KevinH]

Well it's just a day off from my timeframe. LOL! Still a pretty good call if this verifies.

Now we wait… one of my least favorite parts

*IF*the models start to come into agreement THIS early though, that will kick things up a notch as far as paying attention goes.

Time for Dixie to wake up

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Euro and GFS operational runs on board with a doozy. I'm starting to get excited let's see 2 more days of consistency and I'm all on board. May be a low cape setup but I'm all on board for a sub 1000mb low and a bowling ball in the 500s.