Svr Wx threat March 24-26th 2024

[Clancy]

SPC watching LA.

Mesoscale Discussion 0300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Areas affected...parts of western/northern Louisiana and adjacent
southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251720Z - 252015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential exists for one or two supercell storms to
gradually develop this afternoon, particularly near/west of the
Alexandria through Monroe vicinities by 3-4 PM CDT, if not earlier.
This may be accompanied by increasing risk to produce
tornadoes--perhaps a strong one.

DISCUSSION...In advance of a pre-frontal low-level wind
shift/confluence zone slowly advancing eastward across parts of
western Arkansas and eastern Texas, new thunderstorm development has
initiated across upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coastal
areas. This appears to be in response to low-level moistening and
lift within a fairly strong warm advection regime, which may be
maximized near or just above 850 mb.

This is forecast to continue to shift north-northeastward toward
north central Louisiana, near/west of Monroe, through 20-21Z, where
somewhat weaker mid-level inhibition and increasing mid/upper
forcing beneath more pronounced difluent flow aloft may support
thunderstorm intensification. Given the strong deep-layer shear,
and forecast of enlarging low-level hodographs beneath strengthening
southerly 850 flow (to 50+ kt), the structure of the near-surface
thermodynamic profiles remains the primary uncertainty concerning
severe weather potential.

For example, notable differences are evident between the NAM and
Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, with the NAM soundings suggesting
convection may remain elevated above a saturated but weakly stable
profile from the surface through around 850 mb. Lapse rates within
this layer in the Rapid Refresh forecast soundings appear at least
somewhat more unstable, and perhaps supportive of convection rooted
closer to the surface, where hodographs within the low-level inflow
layer may be more conducive to the evolution of strong low-level
mesocyclones.

..Kerr/Hart.. 03/25/2024

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 300

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Chris3024]

looks like KHDC is transmitting some data

 

[weunice]

Hoping they leave it up even if they are.just calibrating it. It could be helpful today. I mean I don't want to screw up the radar but it has been pushing data since yesterday. Suspect they were aiming to have it for today but what do I know.

 

[Clancy]

Tornado Watch for LA/TX/AR.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 61
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Arkansas
Western and Northern Louisiana
Southeast Texas

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to intensify over southeast
Texas and western Louisiana ahead of a cold front. Strong winds
aloft will pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging
winds and a few tornadoes through the afternoon.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 65 miles south southwest of Fort Polk
LA to 60 miles east northeast of El Dorado AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 61

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[UncleJuJu98]

!!!!!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

looks like KHDC is transmitting some data

How do you get it? GR Level 3 doesn't list it and still has KLIX.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Cell passing north of Alexandria, LA is the first severe-warned one of the afternoon and could be problematic down the road.

 

[JPWX]

Brief question. For anyone who has a subscription to MMFS, is it worth subscribing to?

 

[Chris3024]

How do you get it? GR Level 3 doesn't list it and still has KLIX.

it shows up on Radar Omega

 

[JBishopwx]

How do you get it? GR Level 3 doesn't list it and still has KLIX.

They pushed out an update in the owner's forum the other day.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

They pushed out an update in the owner's forum the other day.

Ah, that explains it. I bought my product key way back when but have never participated or even registered on the owner's forum.

 

[southmdwatcher]

I can confirm that I also have KHDC available on my Radar Omega and It does say it is still calibrating. But there is not a new update to GRLevelX yet to acquire that, just a topic in the feature requests section. It should be any day now........hopefully VERY soon.

 

[warneagle]

It's there on Radarscope too

 

[atrainguy]

Didn't notice until now that I'm under a low risk for tornadoes tomorrow! Marginal risk, but still. IIRC the Grand Blanc EF2 down the road was in a marginal risk zone too, so you never know.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

One year and a day later, and Rolling Fork is under a severe thunderstorm warning. At least, if there is any tornado threat with this storm, it should track further south near Onward.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Tightening up a bit just west of Onward, MS...

 

[Austin Dawg]

Ugly.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Thermos ain't cutting it today lol.

 

[Justin Hindman]

I mean the hrr has nailed this 100 percent. Not sure what spc was thinking per usual. I can get the 10 percent in a few places not in Louisiana tho lol