KevinH
Member
They will become more clear in the coming days. They can’t always have a high degree of certainty this far out, but they will modify the forecasts as we closer to Mon/Tue.
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Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather
CIPS/CSU Monday:
CIPS/CSU Tuesday
WOAH! That's a dangerous look.
Looks like it's going to be a crazy event in the Northern half of Florida and south Georgia possibly
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Looking at the NWS of mobile discussion they mention the possibilities of this being a high end event for there area, that they will refine the forecast as it gets closer. YIKES.
Any Mets care to chime in, on why this is a significant severe event possibly?
Clancy
Member
Both GFS and EURO are pretty much crapvection central over Alabama and Georgia all Tuesday morning, which would really insulate against northward warm sector propagation.
KevinH
Member
Maybe they're banking on the LLJ being so strong the surge of unstable air will be extremely quick? This is a incredibly strong jet after all
Clancy
Member
They seem to suggest substantial potential in spite of the limiting factors; they sound pretty confident in destabilization regardless of convective contamination. Definitely a risk for the coast regardless, but further inland still seems like a big question mark to me personally.
My guess banks on the abundant very unstable air off the coast and the extreme LLJ. Either way. We are getting close to mesoscale models which will be very helpful in answering *some* questions lol
CheeselandSkies
Member
First sniff of NAM (today's 12Z run) at Monday-Monday evening's threat over TX/LA seems to have a good bit more instability and slightly further inland than most GFS runs so far, and that's with its cool bias.
Clancy
Member
Does seem to have a deeper pool of instability it's pulling from. Higher realized available moisture would almost certainly enhance this somewhat.
Clancy
Member
Analysis from Trey.
I read the discussion out of San Antonio this morning and they were worried about the system starting more severe weather further north than Houston and corpus Christi and it might be approaching the San Antonio - Austin area. Where I live at here close to liberty Hill it's usually just east of us but you never can't tell where it's gonna start.
18z Nam actually is kindve bullish on prefrontal supercells. Along the coast.
This could be a significant weather/ tornado event just 100-150 miles inland all the way from Texas.
Even if this is confined to that area there's a lot of populated areas along the coastal areas.
South Georgia north Florida may be the biggest severe/tornado area. I can't wait to see mesoscale models continue to get in range.
This could be a significant weather/ tornado event just 100-150 miles inland all the way from Texas.
Even if this is confined to that area there's a lot of populated areas along the coastal areas.
South Georgia north Florida may be the biggest severe/tornado area. I can't wait to see mesoscale models continue to get in range.
