KevinH
Member
Please post the soundings! lol
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Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
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- severe weather
CheeselandSkies
Member
Not quite the insane hodographs I was seeing yesterday (like the one that literally went off the chart due to the strength of the winds up to 1 KM), but that's more than ample shear.
Attachments
Clancy
Member
Would expect the slowing trend to kick in as we approach D5-6, though I'll be interested to see if there are alterations to trough placement/intensity which can sometimes accompany that temporal shift.
JPWX
Member
From my Patreon: Of more importance is the fact we could be dealing with our first significant severe weather event of 2024 as soon as next week.
What we know:
A. A strong storm system will impact a large part of the U.S. causing blizzard conditions to the north and severe weather/heavy rain to the south during the Monday thru Wednesday timeframe.
B. This system will have plenty of moisture and wind shear to work with leading to the potential for severe storms.
C. This system will have multiple hazards including heavy rainfall, flash flooding, tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
What we don't know:
A. The extent and intensity of the overall severe weather/tornado threat.
B. Extent of northward progression of warm front.
Main Takeaways:
A. Everyone from Kentucky into the Deep South and along the Gulf Coast should have their severe weather preparedness plan ready. Clean out your safe rooms and just be prepared.
B. Total Rainfall forecasted during the next 7 days is between 4-6 inches along the Gulf Coast with 2-4 inch amounts across Central/North MS. While this rain is much needed, it could lead to isolated and widely scattered flash flooding issues.
What we know:
A. A strong storm system will impact a large part of the U.S. causing blizzard conditions to the north and severe weather/heavy rain to the south during the Monday thru Wednesday timeframe.
B. This system will have plenty of moisture and wind shear to work with leading to the potential for severe storms.
C. This system will have multiple hazards including heavy rainfall, flash flooding, tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
What we don't know:
A. The extent and intensity of the overall severe weather/tornado threat.
B. Extent of northward progression of warm front.
Main Takeaways:
A. Everyone from Kentucky into the Deep South and along the Gulf Coast should have their severe weather preparedness plan ready. Clean out your safe rooms and just be prepared.
B. Total Rainfall forecasted during the next 7 days is between 4-6 inches along the Gulf Coast with 2-4 inch amounts across Central/North MS. While this rain is much needed, it could lead to isolated and widely scattered flash flooding issues.
Clancy
Member
One of my New Year's resolutions was to clean out some of the old stuff in my closet. Definitely giving me a little extra motivation to get to it, haha.
KevinH
Member
Where were these taken?
CheeselandSkies
Member
Florida panhandle as indicated in my earlier post.
KevinH
Member
Oops… sorry lol
warneagle
Member
you can find the coordinates in the upper left of these soundings
KevinH
Member
I have seen the coordinates before, but I don’t know how to tell where a location is based just on coordinates.
Clancy
Member
00Z GFS coming in similar to previous few runs. Still feel like it's not handling the moisture return well, considering how darn strong the northward component of winds is forecasted at pretty much all levels.
atrainguy
Member
You can type them in at the Google Maps search bar and it'll take you to them.
Clancy
Member
06Z and 12Z GFS bumped up moisture compared to previous runs somewhat. I'm sure it'll continue to wobble back and forth over the next few days.
KevinH
Member
Ok awesome. Thank you.
- Thread starter
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- #36
There are good number of GFS and EURO ensembles with higher instability into South Alabama. On the EURO members, I see a noticeable cut off of the greater chances of 300-500 joules of CAPE around the Clanton, AL area and then the 800-1000 joules for the coastal areas (in example Mobile, AL).
JPWX
Member
So as far as areas impacted by next Tuesday, do we think it'll be farther north than the Gulf Coast? Personally, I still believe it'll be further north than models currently have it.
Clancy
Member
As of this morning, SPC was being cautious about the northward extent of instability and moisture on Monday and Tuesday. Still think models aren't handling the moisture return very well, though sometimes early-season events like this get stuck on the coast. However, the system coming through this weekend looks to well up a lot of deep Gulf moisture ahead of the Mon-Tues system, which I'd have to reckon will give this system a boost.
Clancy
Member
FWIW, CIPS-forecasted SHERB values via the GFS have been consistently robust over MS/AL/GA. While more classic parameters aren't showing very much over the area of interest, I still think the northward edge of the threat bears very close watching. A pretty minor difference in the amount of moisture and available energy could translate to a serious difference in the performance deeper inland, considering the wind fields at hand (sounding from East-Central AL).
Day 6 (Monday) CIPS/CSU:
Day 7 (Tuesday)
Day 7 (Tuesday)
