Severe Weather 2024

[JPWX]

Remember....

Makes sense then for a significant winter weather and/or severe weather event.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

CIPS for the 240 hour time range (1/08-1/11) showing a fairly strong signal for possibility of severe.
View attachment 22731

That's impressive.

 

[JBishopwx]

Tonights 0z GFS still targeting the 9th.

 

[Clancy]

Tonights 0z GFS still targeting the 9th.

FWIW, yesterday's 12Z Euro run also showing a similar solution (and for the last few runs), though it is at the very end of the run.

 

[JPWX]

Well hello Mr. Trough going negative tilt. I've already made mention of this in my first weather text of the year (that'll send out at 6:30am this morning) HAPPY NEW YEAR by the way!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tonights 0z GFS still targeting the 9th. View attachment 22741

That's a incredibly powerful 500mb streak. My goodness.

If there's any relevant instability that's bad

 

[MichelleH]

From the SPC day 4-8...

Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough
will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday
across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over
the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of
low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS
Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There
are still some timing differences in the progression of this
pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still,
both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe
threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the
lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will
be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and
possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater
predictability

 

[Clancy]

From the SPC day 4-8...

Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough
will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday
across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over
the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of
low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS
Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There
are still some timing differences in the progression of this
pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still,
both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe
threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the
lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will
be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and
possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater
predictability

Yeah, SPC is definitely keeping an eye on this one.

 

[JPWX]

6z GFS, 00z Canadian, and 00z Euro

 

[Clancy]

6z GFS, 00z Canadian, and 00z Euro

That tilt on the GFS and Euro tho *eyes emoji*

 

[JPWX]

That tilt on the GFS and Euro tho *eyes emoji*

Yeah. It's uncanny to see both the GFS and Euro showing the same type of thing this far in advance too.

 

[KevinH]

Seeing the location of the low reminds me of something Spann said having to do with svr weather outbreaks and a potent low being over Arkansas. I will see if I can find it

 

[Austin Dawg]

Yeah. It's uncanny to see both the GFS and Euro showing the same type of thing this far in advance too.

I'm glad it's January and not April.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I'm glad it's January and not April.

Yup the instability will be a thorn in this events side. With the GFS and EUROs position it looks to be south Miss/south al event.

 

[MichelleH]

Yeah. It's uncanny to see both the GFS and Euro showing the same type of thing this far in advance too.

The fact that they are consistently showing it this far in advance doesn't fill me with the warm fuzzies.

 

[JPWX]

I wouldn't be concerned about instability levels yet. The way the GFS and Euro have that trough, it would be easier for deep Gulf moisture to be funnel further north especially if the system slows down a bit. Besides it's Dixie we're talking about here. Not tornado alley. Dixie doesn't play by the normal lack of instability rules which for some reason is always the biggest thing that gets harped on. I mean I see why and the reason, but there's other things like wind shear that can compensate for the instability.

 

[KevinH]

I wouldn't be concerned about instability levels yet. The way the GFS and Euro have that trough, it would be easier for deep Gulf moisture to be funnel further north especially if the system slows down a bit. Besides it's Dixie we're talking about here. Not tornado alley. Dixie doesn't play by the normal lack of instability rules which for some reason is always the biggest thing that gets harped on. I mean I see why and the reason, but there's other things like wind shear that can compensate for the instability.

Exactly.

Dixie does what she wants, when she wants, IF she wants, all while giving us the finger.

DIXIE ALLEY DOES NOT PLAY BY THE “RULES” people lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I wouldn't be concerned about instability levels yet. The way the GFS and Euro have that trough, it would be easier for deep Gulf moisture to be funnel further north especially if the system slows down a bit. Besides it's Dixie we're talking about here. Not tornado alley. Dixie doesn't play by the normal lack of instability rules which for some reason is always the biggest thing that gets harped on. I mean I see why and the reason, but there's other things like wind shear that can compensate for the instability.

This event needs a decent chunk of instability though, my go to would be around 800j or so, whenever I see a extreme amount of shear, like this event I think of updrafts getting shredded ; it needs some balance. Usually a 1000j is really good for a winter event. But for sustaining good updrafts with really high shear it needs a decent chunk. But you make a good point of the trough funnelling more instability, it's something to keep a close eye on.

And there is other mechanisms that can aid in them not being shredded, but the instability is my main concern with this event not reaching it's full potential

 

[KevinH]

This event needs a decent chunk of instability though, my go to would be around 800j or so, whenever I see a extreme amount of shear, like this event I think of updrafts getting shredded ; it needs some balance. Usually a 1000j is really good for a winter event. But for sustaining good updrafts with really high shear it needs a decent chunk. But you make a good point of the trough funnelling more instability, it's something to keep a close eye on.

And there is other mechanisms that can aid in them not being shredded, but the instability is my main concern with this event not reaching it's full potential

See my previous comment LOL!!!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This event needs a decent chunk of instability though, my go to would be around 800j or so, whenever I see a extreme amount of shear, like this event I think of updrafts getting shredded ; it needs some balance. Usually a 1000j is really good for a winter event. But for sustaining good updrafts with really high shear it needs a decent chunk. But you make a good point of the trough funnelling more instability, it's something to keep a close eye on.

And there is other mechanisms that can aid in them not being shredded, but the instability is my main concern with this event not reaching it's full potential

500 to 800 j get her done. the wind fields thus far out are very concerning