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Severe Weather 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #22
KevinH
Member
Watching
Clancy
Member
'Twas ol' reliable sarcasm (don't worry, I have trouble telling sarcasm myself as well sometimes).Me trying to figure out if you are being sarcastic or not:
JPWX
Member
To be honest, it's gonna be Dixie Alley again than Tornado Alley. Sorry Reed and other chasers but here's my reason why:
1. This El Nino will fall apart going into Spring 2024 transitioning from a central Pacific Modoki El Nino to a Modoki La Nina.
Recent Modoki La NIna's: 1973–1974, 1975–1976, 1983–1984, 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2000–2001, 2008–2009, 2010–2011, and 2016–2017
Note: All this data below is off a Spreadsheet sent to me upon request from Patrick Marsh at SPC.
2. A. Mississippi saw 1,102 tornadoes in 1973 (480 during Spring)
B. 945 in 1974 (447 during Spring)
C. 919 in 1975 (380 during Spring)
D. 834 in 1976 (448 during Spring)
3. A. Mississippi saw 930 tornadoes in 1983 (385 during Spring)
B. 907 in 1984 (418 during Spring)
4. A. Mississippi saw 702 tornadoes in 1988 (218 during Spring)
B. 856 in 1989 (356 during Spring)
5. A. Mississippi saw 1,424 tornadoes in 1998 (564 during Spring)
B. 1,339 in 1999 (542 during Spring)
6. A. Mississippi saw 1,075 tornadoes in 2000 (480 during Spring)
B. 1,215 in 2001 (409 during Spring)
7. A. Mississippi saw 1,689 tornadoes in 2008 (778 during Spring)
B. 1,156 in 2009 (542 during Spring)
C. 1,281 in 2010 (478 during Spring)
D. 1,691 in 2011 (1,158 during Spring)
8. A. Mississippi saw 976 tornadoes in 2016 (444 during Spring)
B. 1,428 in 2017 (697 during Spring)
Now let's tie this in with the Atlantic Hurricane Seasons those years because I also believe 2024 will be very active in that as well.
1973 (Above): Total systems: 24, 8 Tropical Storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major.
1974 (Near Average): Total systems: 20, 11 Tropical Storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 majors.
1975 (Near Average): Total systems: 23, 9 Tropical Storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 majors.
1976 (Average): Total systems: 21, 10 Tropical Storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 majors.
1983 (Below normal): Total systems: 7, 4 Tropical Storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major.
1984 (Above normal): Total systems: 20, 13 Tropical Storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major.
1988 (Above normal): Total systems: 19, 12 Tropical Storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 majors. 1 cat.5
1989 (Above normal): Total systems: 15, 11 Tropical Storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 majors. 1 cat.5
1998 (Above normal): Total systems: 14, 14 Tropical Storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 majors. 1 cat.5
1999 (Above normal): Total systems: 16, 12 Tropical Storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 majors.
2000 (Above normal): Total systems: 19, 15 Tropical Storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 majors.
2001 (Above normal): Total systems: 17, 15 Tropical Storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 majors.
2008 (Above normal): Total systems: 17, 16 Tropical Storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 majors.
2009 (Below normal): Total systems: 11, 9 Tropical Storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 majors.
2010 (Above normal): Total systems: 21, 19 Tropical Storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 majors.
2011 (Above normal): Total systems: 20, 19 Tropical Storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors.
2016 (Above normal): Total systems: 16, 15 Tropical Storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors. 1 cat.5
2017 (Above normal): Total systems: 18, 17 Tropical Storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 majors, 2 cat.5
Let's look at MS and Kansas from 2017 thru 2022:
(these are the final storm reports 2017 thru 22 off SPC site)
MS saw 70 tornadoes in 2017 with Kansas seeing 60.
MS saw 93 tornadoes in 2018 with Kansas seeing 89.
MS saw 115 tornadoes in 2019 with Kansas seeing 91.
MS saw 87 tornadoes in 2020 with Kansas seeing 17.
MS saw 78 tornadoes in 2021 with Kansas seeing 37.
MS saw 121 tornadoes in 2022 with Kansas seeing 56.
1. This El Nino will fall apart going into Spring 2024 transitioning from a central Pacific Modoki El Nino to a Modoki La Nina.
Recent Modoki La NIna's: 1973–1974, 1975–1976, 1983–1984, 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2000–2001, 2008–2009, 2010–2011, and 2016–2017
Note: All this data below is off a Spreadsheet sent to me upon request from Patrick Marsh at SPC.
2. A. Mississippi saw 1,102 tornadoes in 1973 (480 during Spring)
B. 945 in 1974 (447 during Spring)
C. 919 in 1975 (380 during Spring)
D. 834 in 1976 (448 during Spring)
3. A. Mississippi saw 930 tornadoes in 1983 (385 during Spring)
B. 907 in 1984 (418 during Spring)
4. A. Mississippi saw 702 tornadoes in 1988 (218 during Spring)
B. 856 in 1989 (356 during Spring)
5. A. Mississippi saw 1,424 tornadoes in 1998 (564 during Spring)
B. 1,339 in 1999 (542 during Spring)
6. A. Mississippi saw 1,075 tornadoes in 2000 (480 during Spring)
B. 1,215 in 2001 (409 during Spring)
7. A. Mississippi saw 1,689 tornadoes in 2008 (778 during Spring)
B. 1,156 in 2009 (542 during Spring)
C. 1,281 in 2010 (478 during Spring)
D. 1,691 in 2011 (1,158 during Spring)
8. A. Mississippi saw 976 tornadoes in 2016 (444 during Spring)
B. 1,428 in 2017 (697 during Spring)
Now let's tie this in with the Atlantic Hurricane Seasons those years because I also believe 2024 will be very active in that as well.
1973 (Above): Total systems: 24, 8 Tropical Storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major.
1974 (Near Average): Total systems: 20, 11 Tropical Storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 majors.
1975 (Near Average): Total systems: 23, 9 Tropical Storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 majors.
1976 (Average): Total systems: 21, 10 Tropical Storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 majors.
1983 (Below normal): Total systems: 7, 4 Tropical Storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major.
1984 (Above normal): Total systems: 20, 13 Tropical Storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major.
1988 (Above normal): Total systems: 19, 12 Tropical Storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 majors. 1 cat.5
1989 (Above normal): Total systems: 15, 11 Tropical Storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 majors. 1 cat.5
1998 (Above normal): Total systems: 14, 14 Tropical Storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 majors. 1 cat.5
1999 (Above normal): Total systems: 16, 12 Tropical Storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 majors.
2000 (Above normal): Total systems: 19, 15 Tropical Storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 majors.
2001 (Above normal): Total systems: 17, 15 Tropical Storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 majors.
2008 (Above normal): Total systems: 17, 16 Tropical Storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 majors.
2009 (Below normal): Total systems: 11, 9 Tropical Storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 majors.
2010 (Above normal): Total systems: 21, 19 Tropical Storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 majors.
2011 (Above normal): Total systems: 20, 19 Tropical Storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors.
2016 (Above normal): Total systems: 16, 15 Tropical Storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors. 1 cat.5
2017 (Above normal): Total systems: 18, 17 Tropical Storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 majors, 2 cat.5
Let's look at MS and Kansas from 2017 thru 2022:
(these are the final storm reports 2017 thru 22 off SPC site)
MS saw 70 tornadoes in 2017 with Kansas seeing 60.
MS saw 93 tornadoes in 2018 with Kansas seeing 89.
MS saw 115 tornadoes in 2019 with Kansas seeing 91.
MS saw 87 tornadoes in 2020 with Kansas seeing 17.
MS saw 78 tornadoes in 2021 with Kansas seeing 37.
MS saw 121 tornadoes in 2022 with Kansas seeing 56.
Clancy
Member
Dixie early and Plains later just tends to be how it is. People still love Farmer's Almanac-style forecasting though.
- Moderator
- #26
As someone who studies tornado history, and by looking at those years...buckle up.
tennessee storm chaser
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Strong indication we are going head right into a fairly stout La Niña following this El Niño during spring 24…. Could get very interesting on the severe weather outlook
JPWX
Member
Yep. which is why I'm bullish on my 2024 hurricane season outlook. That could be crazy as well.
We have not moved into an El Niño pattern in Texas. Usually, by this time, in an El Niño year, we should've had at least one or two low-pressure systems generate over Texas and move east but the Pacific jetstream has not taken hold here. It has been dry and warm when it was supposed to be wet
HEY, we may need a thread for Florida they may actually have a robust severe threat coming up in 4-5 days.
Let's watch and see what evolves on models moving forward for that area.
Let's watch and see what evolves on models moving forward for that area.
- Thread starter
- #31
KevinH
Member
Good to know.
The SPC isn’t too confident now themselves, but I also wonder what the FICKLE models will say lol
The SPC isn’t too confident now themselves, but I also wonder what the FICKLE models will say lol
- Moderator
- #32
This needs to be in the severe 2023 thread. Thank you!
Wait I posted in the 2024? Lol my bad. I didn't even look at that. I saw severe thread and posted hahaha. I'll post it there!
I got it posted in the other one now @MichelleH
- Thread starter
- #35
KevinH
Member
SOOOOO eager to start a thread LMAO
A litte lol, in general I type and go real fast with my posting and typing because I'm usually busy, that I don't.look a whole lot Or craft a well put together post when I do post. That's why I make so many edits to my posts after I've posted
- Thread starter
- #37
KevinH
Member
I get that LOL!!!!
That is the system I was alluding to in the GFS showing up down the road earlier this week. It just decided to go. a little bit further south every time I've run the model sense. When I first was looking at it. It came on around Corpus Christi and was hugging the coastline until turning north, and coming straight up Mississippi and Alabama. I don't know that we're gonna get severe weather out of it but we're definitely going to get something.
- Moderator
- #39
Copied to Severe 2023 thread.
KQNA (Memphis) radar will be down for two weeks at the start of the year.
