Severe Weather 2024

[JPWX]

KQNA (Memphis) radar will be down for two weeks at the start of the year.

IEM :: PNS from NWS MEG

PNS issued by NWS MEG at 14 Dec 2023 17:21 UTC

mesonet.agron.iastate.edu

Go ahead and put down either a significant severe weather and/or ice storm/winter storm threat.

 

[JPWX]

You know it's gonna happen. Radar goes offline.

 

[Austin Dawg]

You know it's gonna happen. Radar goes offline.

 

[wolfywise]

I say 2024 will be active simply because its a transitional year, and those tend to be more active in general.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

at that long wave trough on the GFS for the 12-14 day period.

 

[KevinH]

at that long wave trough on the GFS for the 12-14 day period.

Picture?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

It's fantasy range, but has been popping up on several runs now. Certainly bears keeping an eye on that timeframe.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

at that long wave trough on the GFS for the 12-14 day period.

That’s going be the big pattern changer right there …

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Picture?

 

[JPWX]

For a pattern change to occur, you're gonna have heavy rain/severe weather risk first before you have snow/wintry weather. That goes especially for the Deep South.

 

[JPWX]

Nothing spells severe weather like a 978mbar low pressure system (00z GFS). The 6z GFS has a 985mbar low pressure system which would also be a severe weather threat, but probably more centered along the Gulf Coast/southern areas of the Deep South.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Nothing spells severe weather like a 978mbar low pressure system (00z GFS). The 6z GFS has a 985mbar low pressure system which would also be a severe weather threat, but probably more centered along the Gulf Coast/southern areas of the Deep South.

Yeah. 0z would be a much larger area outbreak vs 6z more towards the gulf coast … what a system

 

[KevinH]

Yeah. 0z would be a much larger area outbreak vs 6z more towards the gulf coast … what a system

Would not be surprised if this ended up becoming the first svr thread of 2024.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Would not be surprised if this ended up becoming the first svr thread of 2024.

I was just noticing this myself. A low pressure system developing that strong and developing that far south is not good news. I know it's out in voodoo land, but it was showing a lot of CAPE for a January system. Was that a quick band of snow forming on the backside of this storm?

 

[JPWX]

I was just noticing this myself. A low pressure system developing that strong and developing that far south is not good news. I know it's out in voodoo land, but it was showing a lot of CAPE for a January system. Was that a quick band of snow forming on the backside of this storm?

It was indeed. The 12z GFS wasn't aggressive. Both 00z and 12z Canadian runs have wintry weather issues. 00z Euro had wintry mix while 12z Euro has just rain. Basically it's anyone's guess what we get.

 

[MichelleH]

It was indeed. The 12z GFS wasn't aggressive. Both 00z and 12z Canadian runs have wintry weather issues. 00z Euro had wintry mix while 12z Euro has just rain. Basically it's anyone's guess what we get.

Hopefully, it doesn't pull a November 1989 and we get both.

 

[Clancy]

Seems to be pretty consistent in at least showing up for the last several runs. I was kind of expecting this thing to just fade into the void given how far out it is, so if it sticks around I'm sure it's gonna wobble a lot. Would definitely take some flakes over tornadoes.

 

[JPWX]

Seems to be pretty consistent in at least showing up for the last several runs. I was kind of expecting this thing to just fade into the void given how far out it is, so if it sticks around I'm sure it's gonna wobble a lot. Would definitely take some flakes over tornadoes.

Wouldn't we all! LOL

 

[JPWX]

18z GFS has snow for North MS, Arkansas, into Alabama around the 6th then a severe weather risk around the 9th. LOL!

 

[Clancy]

That's certainly quite an interesting look on the 18Z for the 9th into the 10th.