January 27th deep south severe wx

[UncleJuJu98]

Mobile office says they expect a upgrade in there area and to not go to bed thinking it could just be a few severe storms. The system may pack a wallop in there area. and be a bit more significant

 

[Clancy]

The 00Z CAMs suite all have confidence in some degree of at least marginal destabilization behind that big early-day QLCS. Interestingly, NAM 3km is arguably the most aggressive among them with regard to areal coverage. Not sure I buy it, but will be interesting to watch nonetheless.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Today looks like a nothing burger, HRRR drastically downplaying the line in the mobile area and the central Alabama area looks like garbage lol

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Today looks like a nothing burger, HRRR drastically downplaying the line in the mobile area and the central Alabama area looks like garbage lol

Yup. Slight already trimmed southward with the first outlook update.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Sbcape gradually building in west Alabama and east Mississippi. Gunna watch for any surprises lol

 

[Clancy]

The strand of cumulus clouds that may be a problem later today is visible on satellite over MS.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The strand of cumulus clouds that may be a problem later today is visible on satellite over MS.
View attachment 23658

Peek that clearing as well over west Alabama. Don't wanna get caught barefooted today lol. This whole forecast for today has been wack

 

[Clancy]

Peek that clearing as well over west Alabama. Don't wanna get caught barefooted today lol. This whole forecast for today has been wack

Setups like these are so weird and fickle, and equally fascinating.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Already reaching some spots of 500+ Sbcape in east Mississippi now. May actually reach a 1000 into central Alabama later if things keep up

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Woah! Hrrr going off with low topped supercells in current run it looks like.

Current HRRR is playing catch-up as well better moisture return and the low pressure system is a little deeper. North Alabama might find themselves in the cross hairs lol

 

[Clancy]

Even with solid CAPE, there's a distinct chance that the storms remain little more than rain showers. That being said, the low is much closer to the forecasted activity than recent similar events that come to mind.

 

[MichelleH]

If my pain is any indication of how bad it will get later, we're in trouble. A few hours ago I started feeling like I've been hit by a truck.

 

[Clancy]

Low-level helicity is starting to build in.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Low-level helicity is starting to build in.
View attachment 23660

Instability is getting decent as well. Close to 1000j were jpwx lives. Just to the immediate southeast of the low you may have a couple decent low topped cells. Sun is poking out near me some in central Alabama as well

 

[JBishopwx]

From BMX...

 

[JBishopwx]

Huntsville did mention they are watching the line currently exiting MS for gusty winds and tornado potential, if it strengthens

 

[Clancy]

Pretty decent QLCS did indeed get going down along the Panhandle.

 

[Clancy]

Wasn't expecting a tornado watch down there but alas.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Surprised there’s not a warning for that storm coming into Santa Rosa beach.

 

[KevinH]

Woah! Hrrr going off with low topped supercells in current run it looks like.

Current HRRR is playing catch-up as well better moisture return and the low pressure system is a little deeper. North Alabama might find themselves in the cross hairs lol

View attachment 23659

And THIS is supposed to be for 5pm tonight?