A day 4 has been pushed out by the guys at SPC for a low cape high shear event as worded in there discussion. Main timeframe looks to be Saturday afternoon.
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January 27th deep south severe wx
- Thread starter UncleJuJu98
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- #2
From this morning's AFD from BMX:
A larger area of rain and a few storms is expected on Saturday as a
500mb trough approaches. The intensity of this activity will have to
be monitored as it will move across locations that will have already
racked up a few inches of rain from earlier in the week. The speed
of this system may save us from a renewed and elevated flood threat.
A few runs of models have shown potential for some instability to
develop ahead of the front in the presence of deep-layer shear. If
this were to happen, parameters could support a few strong storms.
This will come down to timing. If the system is fairly progressive,
we won`t have time to realize the instability.
A larger area of rain and a few storms is expected on Saturday as a
500mb trough approaches. The intensity of this activity will have to
be monitored as it will move across locations that will have already
racked up a few inches of rain from earlier in the week. The speed
of this system may save us from a renewed and elevated flood threat.
A few runs of models have shown potential for some instability to
develop ahead of the front in the presence of deep-layer shear. If
this were to happen, parameters could support a few strong storms.
This will come down to timing. If the system is fairly progressive,
we won`t have time to realize the instability.
KevinH
Member
So far I am thinking the ceiling isn’t very high with this event. More of a typical springtime event…..
….FOR NOW…..
….FOR NOW…..
- Thread starter
- #4
There's some wiggle room for a decent event. Not a high impact one, but I think there's enough wiggleroom for a moderate instability day, still many questions remain answered but you got a shot for some severe in your neck of the woods KevinH
KevinH
Member
Right! lol
Clancy
Member
Nothing outstanding about the parameters for Saturday, but the GFS and NAM show no preceding precipitation ahead of the main bulk of convection, and wind fields are relatively favorable.
- Thread starter
- #7
Man can these events overperform though, like march 3 2019 and January last year.
Clancy
Member
Oh for sure, just because it looks meager doesn't mean it'll act that way.
- Thread starter
- #9
Man does the 12z Nam reflectivity look impressive but the parameters look like hot doodoo hahah.
Clancy
Member
Not sure I buy the NAM's solution on thermodynamics. With solid moisture return and very little in the way of antecedent convection, I think it may be dragging parameters-wise.
- Thread starter
- #11
Sounds like the status quo of the NAM lol
- Thread starter
- #12
18z Nam is a lot better. A better warm sector, let's see if the parameters mesh better in future runs.
Clancy
Member
Also slowed things down a bit.
- Thread starter
- #14
I won't have to leave my backyard if it's true lol. I think this run got my attention. See a drop in mb's on that low pressure and things will get even more dicey.
KevinH
Member
Not a fan of that day
wx_guy
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Me either. I lived in Auburn, AL at the time. Will never forget that day.
KevinH
Member
Same. Where do you live now?
wx_guy
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Welp, finally something to take my mind off of guns for a few days. Of course my mind is making the waiting period go by at a snails pace...
Not particularly impressed with this setup but the GFS model is forecasting 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE and 200-250 m2s2 of SRH in southeast Alabama. Seems like bulk shear could be one of the deciding factors here, along with quality of moisture return and other stuff I admit I don't quite understand. I'd say the potential will be there for a cell to sneak up on us and drop a sigtor for no reason.
Not particularly impressed with this setup but the GFS model is forecasting 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE and 200-250 m2s2 of SRH in southeast Alabama. Seems like bulk shear could be one of the deciding factors here, along with quality of moisture return and other stuff I admit I don't quite understand. I'd say the potential will be there for a cell to sneak up on us and drop a sigtor for no reason.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Looks like 0Z sped things back up a bit, low-level winds are veering along the cold front and low-level hodographs pretty straight by 21Z when instability peaks in Alabama. There's hardly any instability further out in the warm sector where the greater SRH is.
Something could still come together, but it would take some tweaks to the evolution of the setup as currently modeled.
