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Winter Weather 2025

While I would love for it to verify for you all, I'm going to throw out there that the RAP is possibly seeing sleet as accumulating snow. IJS
 
Euro picking up on that streak as well through north Alabama? ( p.s. You guys really know what you are looking at. I'm just a weather enthusiast at best)
 

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Geno said:
Do they err on the warm side very often?
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Not sure, I think it's just the shallow sense air that makes it hard for models to grasp. That's at least what I've heard before; Don't take it as gospel. A few degrees difference would be big for some areas
 
It's true that models have a hard time seeing the cold air especially shallow arctic air. Which is another reason why you're seeing the mesoscale models such as the RAP and HRRR trying to say "hey you might be surprised with more snow than currently forecasted." To add to this, the GFS, Canadian, and NAM are the main ones showing more sleet/freezing rain. My guess in that regard is they're having difficulty seeing this shallow cold air. Because, if you look at the HRRR for instance, it's showing yeah some sleet (not much though) and very little freezing rain. Having said that though, the 18z GFS has definitely shifted the 1-3 inch snowfall southward. Overall, this looks more snow than sleet/freezing rain threat.
 

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JPWX said:
It's true that models have a hard time seeing the cold air especially shallow arctic air. Which is another reason why you're seeing the mesoscale models such as the RAP and HRRR trying to say "hey you might be surprised with more snow than currently forecasted." To add to this, the GFS, Canadian, and NAM are the main ones showing more sleet/freezing rain. My guess in that regard is they're having difficulty seeing this shallow cold air. Because, if you look at the HRRR for instance, it's showing yeah some sleet (not much though) and very little freezing rain. Having said that though, the 18z GFS has definitely shifted the 1-3 inch snowfall southward. Overall, this looks more snow than sleet/freezing rain threat.
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2 inches for me. I'll take that.
 
00z Rap puts 2+ inches of snow over downtown bham.

I'm a bit intrigued now.

What's the chance of a Christmas miracle tommorow? Hahah

I guess the dynamic cooling is enough to give us heavy snow along a certain corridor. Screenshot_2025-02-18-19-41-14-31_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
Based on the model blend, I think rain/snow line somewhere between Warrior and Cullman. Keeping an eye on the Gulf - some interesting convection firing - and no shortage of it.

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It is insanely cold behind this system. Single digits and closing in on zero f in north TX already. Anything that does fall will be here for a while.
 
Pluviophile said:
I can't believe how quiet it is. Where did everyone go?? Also, is it snowing in northern Mississippi? I'm waiting in north Alabama.
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I think it's a combination of things but mostly that we've already had a good year for snow in the SE. Several inches in New Orleans! If the totals were more impressive and coverage expanded further south we'd see much more activity. I'm sure we'll get some cool snow photos after sunrise though from a few people :)
 
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