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Winter Weather 2025

Probably my favorite day of the winter so far here. Not a ton of accumulation, maybe 1-2" on grassy areas, but it's been snowing now for about 4 hours here. No wind, going back and forth from small flakes to big fat flakes. More is moving in, but we've warmed up from 30 to 32, going to be real close to staying all snow vs. mixing in rain over the next few hours.
 
I'll be honest. I really haven't paid much attention to this because of yesterday's event, but it makes sense with the pattern. Curiously, the only global model that hints at more snow is the Euro. A significant sleet event is shown by the Canadian. GFS (not surprisingly) shows hardly anything. The only thing going against more snow above one inch for southern North MS counties and most areas in general outside of areas further north (Tennessee, etc.) is the cold air isn't entrenched like with the last previous winter events. Unless things change significantly as far as higher snow totals for North MS into Alabama, we can expect a Winter Weather Advisory and of course the Cold Weather Advisory. I'm still trying to make sense about why you would change the Wind Chill Advisory to a Cold Weather Advisory.
 

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JPWX said:
I'll be honest. I really haven't paid much attention to this because of yesterday's event, but it makes sense with the pattern. Curiously, the only global model that hints at more snow is the Euro. A significant sleet event is shown by the Canadian. GFS (not surprisingly) shows hardly anything. The only thing going against more snow above one inch for southern North MS counties and most areas in general outside of areas further north (Tennessee, etc.) is the cold air isn't entrenched like with the last previous winter events. Unless things change significantly as far as higher snow totals for North MS into Alabama, we can expect a Winter Weather Advisory and of course the Cold Weather Advisory. I'm still trying to make sense about why you would change the Wind Chill Advisory to a Cold Weather Advisory.
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My question is, what if the low pressure is say about 50 miles more south would that mean more cold air seeps into central Alabama? I'm on the half inch of snow line for Alabama in the picture
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
My question is, what if the low pressure is say about 50 miles more south would that mean more cold air seeps into central Alabama? I'm on the half inch of snow line for Alabama in the picture
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Yeah. I see that now on 12z Euro. Gulf Low is definitely in right spot. My thinking is cold air moves in faster allowing for bulk of precip to be in the form of snow. I've seen this way too many times thus far this year where we get a cold arctic high pressure building in and you end up having your high/low temperatures end up being much colder than forecasted. I do need to make a note of that in my Patreon post later.
 
JPWX said:
Yeah. I see that now on 12z Euro. Gulf Low is definitely in right spot. My thinking is cold air moves in faster allowing for bulk of precip to be in the form of snow. I've seen this way too many times thus far this year where we get a cold arctic high pressure building in and you end up having your high/low temperatures end up being much colder than forecasted. I do need to make a note of that in my Patreon post later.
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That'd be nice, I think a lot of people have been focused on the severe weather so this has snuck up. Id like to see Blountwolfs opinion. He seems to be a winter weather guru lol. I noticed BMX says wintry precip for a few hours north of i-59 in there discussion
 
21z rap at the end of the run is a bit colder and a little more further southeast with the cold air than the euro and gfs at the same time frame. Not sure if there's any bias with the rap though. Just a comparison of the RAP and euro and gfs at the same timeframe. Screenshot_2025-02-16-17-07-34-86_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2025-02-16-17-06-53-31_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2025-02-16-17-06-24-86_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
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JPWX said:
Yeah. I see that now on 12z Euro. Gulf Low is definitely in right spot. My thinking is cold air moves in faster allowing for bulk of precip to be in the form of snow. I've seen this way too many times thus far this year where we get a cold arctic high pressure building in and you end up having your high/low temperatures end up being much colder than forecasted. I do need to make a note of that in my Patreon post later.
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JPWX said:
Yeah. I see that now on 12z Euro. Gulf Low is definitely in right spot. My thinking is cold air moves in faster allowing for bulk of precip to be in the form of snow. I've seen this way too many times thus far this year where we get a cold arctic high pressure building in and you end up having your high/low temperatures end up being much colder than forecasted. I do need to make a note of that in my Patreon post later.
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How can I sign up for your patreon podcast?
 
Here in upstate SC timing is certain, but type of precip and amount is very uncertain. Right now a mix for me with 0- 2" accumulation. My biggest concern is the roads on Thursday morning as the temps are going to be so low that ice is certain on untreated secondary roads.

I can sit it out but I've got two clients with deadlines screaming for me to help finish their jobs so I'm hoping Wednesday isn't too bad. Still a lot of winter to go but I'm hoping this is the last really cold spell of the year.
 
Thunder98 said:
Bismarck could see temps at minus 40 tonight, which is 5 degrees away from tying there all time low of 45F!
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I spent some time in North Dakota at Grand Forks, I was looking, they’re calling for a low of -36 at Bismarck and only -20 at Grand Forks. It’s kind of unusual to have that much of a spread between the two cities.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
That'd be nice, I think a lot of people have been focused on the severe weather so this has snuck up. Id like to see Blountwolfs opinion. He seems to be a winter weather guru lol. I noticed BMX says wintry precip for a few hours north of i-59 in there discussion
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I'm underwhelmed by this one.

Maybe a dusting for me - more as you go north from here. I'd love to be wrong though.
 
HRRR is Cullman and north for anything other than cold rain. Watch the temps tonight. Slight differences will matter, but this looks like cold air chasing the moisture away for my area in north central AL.
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