Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

[UncleJuJu98]

Same here. I do home health in the metro area. I got stuck for 12 hours on I-20, trying to get home from a patient's house in snowmageddon.

I'm in the metro area as well, that's a long time, I thankfully got home before crap hit the fan on that day, I was 14 and they let out school and I got home thankfully. It was pure chaos though cause my dad put chains on his truck and went and picked up some family that were stranded in Trussville by the Walmart so many stranded cars it looked like the walking dead. I hope I experience nothing like everybody else did, maybe best to pack extra clothing in case lol.

 

[Richardjacks]

Mighty close to causing issues in Birmingham lol. Hopefully this isn't a snowmageddon case we're a heavy snow band initiated a good bit northwest than modelled. I expect my work will not let us drive if there's any doubt at there being frozen precip. ( Drive large trucks )

I am afraid if we do get light accumulations it will.come at the worst possible time...after traffic warms the roads and people are out thinking not much will happen. Sound familiar?

 

[Richardjacks]

I am afraid if we do get light accumulations it will.come at the worst possible time...after traffic warms the roads and people are out thinking not much will happen. Sound familiar?

If we see snow breaking out in northern Louisiana and west miss, by 7 or 8am, that will be our first clue

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I am afraid if we do get light accumulations it will.come at the worst possible time...after traffic warms the roads and people are out thinking not much will happen. Sound familiar?

No bueno. warms up the snow then melts and then refreezes. Yikes!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

If we see snow breaking out in northern Louisiana and west miss, by 7 or 8am, that will be our first clue

I would atleast expect BMX to issue a winter weather advisory for that corridor. I don't think they want to feel the repercussions of another January 28 , 2014

 

[JPWX]

I would atleast expect BMX to issue a winter weather advisory for that corridor. I don't think they want to feel the repercussions of another January 28 , 2014

Nor does Spann for that matter.

 

[PopPop]

I'm in the metro area as well, that's a long time, I thankfully got home before crap hit the fan on that day, I was 14 and they let out school and I got home thankfully. It was pure chaos. I hope I experience nothing like everybody else did, maybe best to pack extra clothing in case lol.

Yeah, chaos everywhere. Thankfully, I was prepped for it then, and I definitely will be this week, just in case

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Nor does Spann for that matter.

The amount of death threats and stuff I saw just scrolling on Twitter was insane when it was going on. I would have already felt bad if I was a forecast metrologists with a blunder like that, not to mention the amount of threats. It probably breeded a environment of "never again" In the central Alabama area of getting caught off guard like that.

 

[Richardjacks]

This is what worries me...that push of confluence southeast into Alabama is preceded by a vort max and a little difluence...if that push is delayed by just an hour, bhsm could get 2 or 3"

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This is what worries me...that push of confluence southeast into Alabama is preceded by a vort max and a little difluence...if that push is delayed by just an hour, bhsm could get 2 or 3"

That's a huge variation with a little adjustment lol. Maybe they're will be more clarity by tommorow afternoon, I imagine my work will try and make some sort of call tommrow evening or will just make us leave work early Tuesday.

 

[Richardjacks]

That's because the ratios will be high

 

[brianc33710]

I remember the 1982 ice storm. I got home from school in time, but my aunts & mom weren't able to leave work before things got bad. So their trip home took 3+ hrs. That came from the south too. Bham dropped to -1 the day before & Mobile was 7. So these temps are nothing compared to that. Bham had a snowstorm 2-3 days later. Bham dropped to 0 7 mornings later too, so 2 0 deg readings within 8 days. Bham has fewer than 10 0/<0 days.

 

[Ars4ua]

What are some things to watch for if we want central Alabama snow ?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

What are some things to watch for if we want central Alabama snow ?

Weaker high pressure
A more northerly low pressure track
And what Richard said.

 

[brianc33710]

What are some things to watch for if we want central Alabama snow ?

We need a Gulf low & cold temps but not overly dry conditions.

 

[Ars4ua]

We need a Gulf low & cold temps but not overly dry conditions.

So I guess once the low forms we will have a better idea ?

 

[brianc33710]

So I guess once the low forms we will have a better idea ?

Yes, a more northerly track is better for CEN AL. But not inland like 2 wks ago!

 

[Richardjacks]

So I guess once the low forms we will have a better idea ?

It comes down to how quickly the upper pattern flow changes. If the vort max comes a little earlier and the upper ridge is delayed, the snow will expand further northward

 

[kcyalater]

This is what worries me...that push of confluence southeast into Alabama is preceded by a vort max and a little difluence...if that push is delayed by just an hour, bhsm could get 2 or 3"

with ground temps i think that would spell trouble. big forecast enigma i don’t envy mets over.

 

[Ars4ua]

It comes down to how quickly the upper pattern flow changes. If the vort max comes a little earlier and the upper ridge is delayed, the snow will expand further northward

I see. When do you think this will show ?