Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

[JPWX]

From what I get from catching up this morning: GFS is totally drunk and wants to go party in Cuba.

 

[Richardjacks]

Even half a inch to a inch in Birmingham will shut things down here lol.

Very true

 

[JPWX]

All things considered, I can see a Winter Weather Advisory from Monroe County, MS to Birmingham, AL at the very least

 

[UncleJuJu98]

l

All things considered, I can see a Winter Weather Advisory from Monroe County, MS to Birmingham, AL at the very least

Yeah, I'm not confident in the precip shield even this close to the event. The last event had some major changes it seemed like just within 24 hours. No slam dunk forecast yet imo.

 

[MikeP]

Didn't NBM look pretty good though?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Didn't NBM look pretty good though?

Yes it went north

 

[cyelle21]

Quick question...what is the difference between the regular NAM and the 3km NAM models other than the latter is broken down by hour? Because the regular 12Z NAM definitely has the precip shield further north.

 

[darkskys25]

I think Richard nailed it. For those hoping for a northern trend, myself included, it's getting highly unlikely. We have a strong high pressure in place that is keeping the system suppressed. This is what typically happens in such a pattern. Looking at the high res models coming in they all support this idea. Honestly I'm thinking that snow North of 85 is unlikely. Im not seeing any real support for snow beyond thatbpoint and suspect areas north will be dropped from the winter storm watch. This is a true rare coastal winter storm. Really cool to see but depressing for us in Central Al. I look forward to seeing the beach pics with snow and hope it overperforms in those areas.

 

[MichelleH]

l

Yeah, I'm not confident in the precip shield even this close to the event. The last event had some major changes it seemed like just within 24 hours. No slam dunk forecast yet imo.

Trying to accurately forecast a winter weather event in Alabama or the South is about as easy as bathing a cat.

 

[Richardjacks]

l

Yeah, I'm not confident in the precip shield even this close to the event. The last event had some major changes it seemed like just within 24 hours. No slam dunk forecast yet imo.

I agree this thing could trend back to the north, but from what i see right now, this is a southern thing

 

[cyelle21]

Maybe this is like watching Alabama football...if I quit watching it, we will have a blizzard

 

[wx_guy]

The HRW FV3 at 12z goes out to 60 hours, so we can see the full extent of things. I suspect the 18z HRRR later today will be similar.

 

[MikeP]

The HRW FV3 at 12z goes out to 60 hours, so we can see the full extent of things. I suspect the 18z HRRR later today will be similar.

View attachment 33178

Boooooooooo.

 

[Blountwolf]

This still has a lot of surprise potential, IMO. Greater gradients deepen lows. 500mb vorticity often defies prediction. Precipitation overruns further (or less!) than predicted. It would not surprise me in the least to see this kick enough moisture up to cause some mischief in unexpected places.

With all that said - the story is going to be the cold. It's not playing.

 

[The Colonel]

Giving it through 0Z before I throw in the towel for Birmingham. Need to see a few more HRRR / CAM runs before it’s really time to accept and move on haha

 

[Richardjacks]

Giving it through 0Z before I throw in the towel for Birmingham. Need to see a few more HRRR / CAM runs before it’s really time to accept and move on haha

If the upper pattern northwest of us has a little less confluence, then the high nosing in may not be as strong

 

[The Colonel]

If the upper pattern northwest of us has a little less confluence, then the high nosing in may not be as strong

I mean, the one thing we do have going for us is the age old “NW trend is your friend” - it’s just hard to beat this much cold and dry air, obviously.

I mean, ultimately we are only talking a shift of 50-100 miles and some weakening as you mentioned above for things to shift. It doesn’t take much - but again, we are seeing some consistency with the models that isn’t exactly great.

Will be eyeballing the HRRR/SREFs and wearing out the model trend on Pivotal for these runs. Hope and a prayer!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Lol the RAP basically is going to have this thing just snowing in the Gulf of Mexico hahahah

 

[Richardjacks]

One key here is notice the isobar over bham, I think we were around 1028 for snowmeggedon....models show us around 1036 Tuesday morning.

 

[cyelle21]

So, as hard as it is to predict snow in Alabama today, could you imagine how hard it would have been in 1857? This is a newspaper article from Jan 30th 1857 from the Cahaba Gazette for a snow event that occurred on January 23rd, 1857 at the town of Caha(w)ba (near Selma)...now a historic site in Dallas County. Did they just look up at the clouds and say "I think that it is going to snow today?" I have always wondered how they predicted the weather back then.