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Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

Even the 0z Canadian has Cen AL at the north end now, not much better than the EURO. The NBM won't look good by sunrise. Obviously models can change again. But they've all shifted away from us for now, with a L further S in the Gulf.
 
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Does the NWS use the NBM for their forecasts? I live near Selma south of Hwy 80 and my official forecast is "less than 1 inch" of snow. James Spann is saying 2 inches from the NBM? I understand that we won't really know until it actually snows. I would be happy with a dusting because it's been over 3 years since I have seen snow! We got a dusting of sleet last year and that was it.
 
cyelle21 said:
Does the NWS use the NBM for their forecasts? I live near Selma south of Hwy 80 and my official forecast is "less than 1 inch" of snow. James Spann is saying 2 inches from the NBM? I understand that we won't really know until it actually snows. I would be happy with a dusting because it's been over 3 years since I have seen snow! We got a dusting of sleet last year and that was it.
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To be honest, relying on the NBM at this stage is not a very good idea. It averages together a bunch of models, so they'll be a much wider swath of snow than in reality -- the truth is they'll probably be a relatively narrow swath of heavy snow. Where that sets up who knows.


On that note, the NAM CAM is coming into focus now! The first CAM we have access to. It is creating a swath of heavy snow along the Gulf Coast with a sharp north-south cutoff line. I actually believe this solution. It has rates of 1-2 inches of snow per hour along souther Louisiana and Mississippi.


1737290018864.png
 
I think we will see a surprise in that precip maybe a bit further north. Just a bunch lol. @cyelle21

This has the feel of snowmageddon to me, where you have. A light band of snow that trains over a very cold area that the temps on the ground are already freezing and slowly accumulates. Mesoscale models already show this light precip.

Word of advice, watch out for a surprise or two during every winter event lol
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I think we will see a surprise in that precip maybe a bit further north. Just a bunch lol. @cyelle21

This has the feel of snowmageddon to me, where you have. A light band of snow that trains over a very cold area that the temps on the ground are already freezing and slowly accumulates. Mesoscale models already show this light precip.

Word of advice, watch out for a surprise or two during every winter event lol
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I keep focusing on this main band...if this verifies, I will be on the very northern edge of the precip shield...see red circle. But I am still hopeful. 1000000973.png
 
This is what I was talking about with the light precip training over a area. It seems that the NAM doesn't show wintry precip because it doesn't hit the threshold I guess? For the precip type parameter. But look at all the light precip that trains over a big area. Temps are in the upper 20s and the ground is already frozen. Light precip bands like snowmageddon almost. Maybe there's something else going on and there's too much dry air and that light precip isn't falling or something idk. I just thought this was interesting @cyelle21 Screenshot_2025-01-19-07-34-07-69_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2025-01-19-07-33-48-38_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
While digging a little deeper into the the difference between this event and snowmeggedon in 2014, I realized the surface high pushing in that day wasnt as strong as the surface high pushing in this time around. The center of the high was a bit further east, this time we are on the front edge of the high, so that will likely restrict the northward expansion of precip. Also, remember, the low levels will be extremely dry...so its going to take more than just light, breif precip to reach the ground the further north you go.

For Bham, I do think we will see a period of snow, I just don't think it will last that long or be that intense. Maybe an 1/2- 1" is what I am thinking.
 
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Richardjacks said:
While digging a little deeper into the the difference between this event and snowmeggedon in 2014, I realized the surface high pushing in that day wasnt as strong as the surface high pushing in this time around. The center of the high was a bit further east, this time we are on the front edge of the high, so that will likely restrict the northward expansion of precip. Also, remember, the low levels will be extremely dry...so its going to take more than just light, breif precip to reach the ground the further north you go.

For Bham, I do think we will see a period of snow, I just don't think it will last that long or be that intense. Maybe an 1/2- 1" is what I am thinking.
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Even half a inch to a inch in Birmingham will shut things down here lol.
 
I don't think I've heard his client talk around here since the Arctic Freeze a few years back, which was life-threatening for this area.

They issued a winter storm tomorrow night. They never do that here. People in this area are not prepared for this kind of cold.

Winter Storm Watch​

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
224 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

TXZ171>173-186>194-204>209-219>225-192200-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.A.0001.250121T0000Z-250122T0000Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Kerr-Bandera-Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-
Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-
Fayette-Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-
Including the cities of Gonzales, Bandera, Floresville, San
Antonio, Pleasanton, Hallettsville, San Marcos, Bastrop, New
Braunfels, Lockhart, Kerrville, Giddings, Hondo, Austin, Seguin,
Georgetown, Karnes City, Cuero, Boerne, Pearsall, Burnet, Llano,
La Grange, Blanco, and Fredericksburg
224 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible Hill Country, I-35
Corridor, and Coastal Plains. Total snow and sleet accumulations
up to two inches and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch
possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Texas.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Please stay indoors until conditions improve. If you must go
outside, dress in layers. Several layers of clothes will keep you
warmer than a single heavy coat. Cover exposed skin to reduce your
risk of frostbite or hypothermia. Gloves, a scarf, and a hat will
keep you from losing your body heat.

Consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary,
drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along
with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables,
flashlight, shovel, blankets, and extra clothing. Also take water, a
first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case
you become stranded.
 
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