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Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

New MD issued. Incredible reflectivity imagery knowing it is heavy snow.
Mesoscale Discussion 0052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast Louisiana...Far Southern Mississippi...Far Southern Alabama...Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 212252Z - 220445Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow will be likely over the next few hours along parts of the central Gulf Coast from far southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. Snowfall rates are expected to exceed 1 inch per hour within the heaviest parts of the band.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough from the Ohio Valley extending southwestward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A powerful mid-level jet of 100 to 140 knots is located to the east of the trough, with the exit region of this jet located in the central Gulf Coast region. Widespread precipitation is ongoing beneath this feature (where lift is strong) from far southeast Louisiana east-northeastward into the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. Most of the precipitation is in the form of snow, with some reports of heavy snow. The latest model forecasts suggest that a band of strong isentropic ascent will continue to spread eastward across the central Gulf Coast region, making conditions favorable for heavy snow over the next few hours. Snowfall rates are expected to exceed 1 inch per hour in some locations. The potential for heavy snow is expected to continue into early to mid evening over southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Further to the west, snowfall rates should gradually decrease over parts of far southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

..Broyles/Smith.. 01/21/2025
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About 3 inches in Troy to this point. Here are some pictures from earlier.
 

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OK, question for this system - why did it park over Mobile like this? Holy cow.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
So does this event surpass a "once in a lifetime event" for some of the areas on the Gulf coast?
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Absolutely! Many all-time records were broken today, and probably won't be seen again for at least 50+ years.

On an unrelated note, Tallahassee is a mess right now. Lots of precipitation types falling and they could get some yucky ice out of it.
 
Amazes me how TWC and these others have places like Panama City, FL getting up to near 40 or above tomorrow with over 3+ snow cover. Like guys when you have snow cover, you cut those highs and lows by 10 to 15 degrees. In some cases, greater depending on the area.
 
JPWX said:
Amazes me how TWC and these others have places like Panama City, FL getting up to near 40 or above tomorrow with over 3+ snow cover. Like guys when you have snow cover, you cut those highs and lows by 10 to 15 degrees. In some cases, greater depending on the area.
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TWC definitely cut the lows. They had 10 for Baton Rouge, which is extremely cold for that city. I didn't pay attention to the highs though.
 
JPWX said:
Amazes me how TWC and these others have places like Panama City, FL getting up to near 40 or above tomorrow with over 3+ snow cover. Like guys when you have snow cover, you cut those highs and lows by 10 to 15 degrees. In some cases, greater depending on the area.
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Do you think the models (HRRR, NAM) are adequately factoring in snow cover for the lows tonight in FL/AL/GA? They seem too high to me. By a lot.
 
wx_guy said:
Do you think the models (HRRR, NAM) are adequately factoring in snow cover for the lows tonight in FL/AL/GA? They seem too high to me. By a lot.
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Probably not to be honest
 
wx_guy said:
Dangerous cold definitely. I suspect many in the area will drop to 7-12 degrees tonight.
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MOB is warning for these cold temps. ECW for the area, with WCs dropping to lower-end single digits.
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