As of right now where does the forecast have the low going?
The 18Z HRRR model has the low passing over New Orleans then Mobile area, onshore. Our best snow chances would be if it stayed offshore, but as of now the models do not support that. However, nowcasting does show the largest temp gradients - which is the path of least resistance for the low, to ride along that gradient - still offshore. As the low continues to move, it will likely push that gradient somewhat north with it, so the idea that it stays offshore is a long shot. If you want snow in N AL, that's where you want it. You want that warmest air circulating around the low further south. Won't help to know that if you're hoping for snow and it doesn't track that way, but at least you'll know what happened.
Little confused with where the 540 line is on this and what precip is being depicted way below it
As many times as the models showed it for them - I would too. Better to predict and then Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency on an ice storm than miss one, IMO.
Not good…Hope the NAM is off on precip type…Do not want an over abundance of ice…No thank you
That's a "Can't Get Off the Mountain" look!
I think your area in N MS is much likely snow than mine in central AL. I do live north of Birmingham though, so there's a little hope.
As of this afternoon, a lot of the models are showing consistent ice storm potential for parts of eastern AL and GA. Think you're right about MS and much of AL, but I'm not so optimistic further east.
Did you see my previous post about similarities to the Gulf low to the 2011 snowstorm and 2015 snowstorm?
Sure did. Fingers crossed.
