Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

[Blountwolf]

Whole bunch of Ick in Dallas. Rain now mixing in with the snow, from the looks of the cams.

 

[sak]

my house is at 41. was hoping we would run 3-5 degrees below forecast but no such luck.
the dewpoint is 10 though so i guess that's good.

 

[Blountwolf]

 

[The Bammer]

my house is at 41. was hoping we would run 3-5 degrees below forecast but no such luck.
the dewpoint is 10 though so i guess that's good.

I am at 35 degrees but running about 5 degrees cooler than what all of my weather apps said I should be at by 1pm today.

 

[The Colonel]

View attachment 32803

18Z HRRR has this initialized in the right location. Let's see where we go from here

 

[Clancy]

screeching noises

 

[Blountwolf]

18Z HRRR has this initialized in the right location. Let's see where we go from here

This is one of the things that can go unexpectedly and have huge implications. Stronger or weaker, further north or further south - the path and strength of the surface low is pretty much the ballgame.

 

[Austin Dawg]

34° with occasional mist or snow flurries here in Leander, about 30 minutes north of Austin.

 

[Clancy]

Winter Storm Warning just issued for much of North Georgia. Set off my weather radio.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
214 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>060-100600-
/O.UPG.KFFC.WS.A.0001.250110T1200Z-250111T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0001.250110T1200Z-250111T1200Z/
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-
Including the cities of Ellijay, Douglasville, Carrollton,
LaFayette, Crawfordville, Winder, Dahlonega, Marietta,
Lawrenceville, Atlanta, Cleveland, Summerville, Cartersville,
Washington, Franklin, Riverdale, Bremen, Crawford, Madison,
Jasper, Hiawassee, Griffin, Newnan, Stockbridge, Eatonton,
Monticello, Comer, Decatur, Fort Oglethorpe, Conyers, Cedartown,
Trenton, Woodstock, Greensboro, Dallas, Calhoun, Jackson, Dalton,
East Point, Commerce, Rome, Dawsonville, Watkinsville,
Chatsworth, Blairsville, Peachtree City, Gainesville, Blue Ridge,
Monroe, Athens, Cumming, Covington, and Homer
214 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...A mix of multiple winter precipitation types are expected.
Total snow and sleet accumulations up to 3 inches and ice
accumulations up to one third of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central,
northeast, northwest, and west central Georgia.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Significant ice accumulation on
power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting
power outages. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ice accumulations have been increased across
portions of the I20 and I85 corridors. Additional changes to ice
and snow amounts are possible with future forecast updates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use
extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.

&&

$$

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

Hrrr looks beautiful

 

[Blountwolf]

screeching noises

Wedge for the "win".

 

[UncleJuJu98]

41 at my parents house in pinson Alabama. Northeast of Birmingham

 

[Blountwolf]

Low over New Orleans at 21 on 18ZHRRR. The trend south is our friend. If reality is 100 miles south of that, things get REALLY nice up here real quick.

 

[The Bammer]

Can we get a thread going for observations as the storm passes through? Great way to nowcast and see what is going on upstream.

 

[Blountwolf]

The surface low is going to want to ride the baroclinic zone - so the area of the greatest temp gradient is going to be the path of least resistance. You can see on this map the pressure falling up near the "bend" of that tightest gradient path.

 

[brianc33710]

Low over New Orleans at 21 on 18ZHRRR. The trend south is our friend. If reality is 100 miles south of that, things get REALLY nice up here real quick.

Wouldn't 100 mi S be too far south for any precip?

 

[Blountwolf]

On the 18Z HRRR output I would mention that the snow (/sleet) accumulation map and the snow depth map are radically different, as it still accumulates and then gets rained away as we saw on previous runs.

 

[Blountwolf]

Wouldn't 100 mi S be too far south for any precip?

Noooo.... not at all. It would be south enough for it to all be frozen precip. There's no shortage of moisture coming, IMO.

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

Clear trend with the Hrrr

 

[JPWX]

That is one tight snow gradient for Northern Monroe County MS on 18z HRRR. Basically it says Smithville sees 4 to 6 inches while Amory gets 1 inch