Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

[Blountwolf]

Guess we got to enjoy the 5 hours of heavy snow in central Alabama at day break and then go on with our merry day in heavy cold rain lol.

Yep. Difference between accumulation at 10:1:


And total snow depth:




0Z HRRR does seem to be saying it starts as a big snow then gets rained away. A heartbreaker for the kids if that verifies, and then a slushy mess that potentially refreezes Friday night. Not the fun stuff at all - but the morning will be pretty to start.

 

[brianc33710]

NAM has some serious cold air damming. Making a icing mess for central Alabama.

But the NAM has the ice north of us too.

 

[The Nino]

wouldn't be a winter storm in the south without the north/south gnashing of teeth! let the drama begin

 

[KoD]

0Z HRRR does seem to be saying it starts as a big snow then gets rained away. A heartbreaker for the kids if that verifies

Hey who you calling kids
I ain't worried yet, still optimistic.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

But the NAM has the ice north of us too.

I guess when I refer to central Alabama I don't think that I live in Blount county so I'm a bit north in the central alabama equation lol. Shows freezing rain for most of the day for me and then raises just above freezing at 3 I think

 

[Blountwolf]

The NAM is nothing but Ick.



Snows in Arkansas - a lot. Everyone else? You get Ick.

 

[brianc33710]

I know just E & N of Jeff Co cold air damming could cause issues. But here I worry it'll be 35 & rain the whole day.

 

[Blountwolf]

Speaking of Ick - HRRR disagrees completely with the idea of significant freezing rain accumulations in many places NAM has lots. It has a little on the map, but not much compared to the NAM.

 

[JPWX]

00z HRRR was first bad run. We'll have to see if the 00z starts a trend on the HRRR side to that because I would like to see more consistency before I change ideas on the snow amounts. The NAM has been very consistent in the freezing rain idea with only the Canadian model backing it's idea. However, it's been the only 2 models that has shown a bigger ice threat than the rest. So for now, I'm sticking to more snow than the junky mess type wintry precip.

 

[MikeP]

Speaking of the ULL - it's still digging. When it moves east and interacts with the gulf is critical.
View attachment 32765

That ULL is what is partly responsible for the extreme Santa Anas being so bad over Cali for the last 24 hours...

 

[Blountwolf]

That ULL is what is partly responsible for the extreme Santa Anas winds being so bad over Cali for the last 24 hours...

Fire and Ice. Kind of amazing what one spin in the upper atmosphere can set off.

Wonder if it's ever going to leave the Baja...

 

[Blountwolf]

Snowing now in SE NM, W TX over to Abilene and even some in to north Mexico in association with the ULL.

 

[Clancy]

0Z GFS. Hot garbage for a lot of us (and power outages).

 

[JPWX]

0Z GFS. Hot garbage for a lot of us (and power outages).
View attachment 32779View attachment 32780

In other news, North MS snowfall still looks good. My apologies ahead of time to Georgia. I pray we don't have another ice apocalypse from Birmingham to Atlanta again.

 

[cg9450]

The NAM is nothing but Ick.

View attachment 32771

Snows in Arkansas - a lot. Everyone else? You get Ick.

View attachment 32772

We’ll take the 5.3 in Nashville

 

[The Colonel]

Enhance

 

[Blountwolf]

We’ll take the 5.3 in Nashville

Yep - I was exaggerating for dramatic effect at my disgust at the run, but yes, y'all absolutely do get good snow up there out of that run. Enjoy, hope it verifies for you!

 

[brianc33710]

Tropical Storm Central pointed out on FB that the Canadian was most accurate with the last storm. That has painted ice for I-20 this storm all along. I want snow instead, no matter how much freezing rain thunderstorms might fascinate me. EDIT: He also says that another bitter cold wave is coming down, as the EURO paints the Gulf from Texas to New Orleans all the way to Jacksonville with snow 22-3 Jan. That might be for another thread though.

 

[JPWX]

This is fascinating.

Winter Storm Warning (North MS) for the February 2015 Snow event:
SNOW/SLEET...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SLEET. (Got 8 inches)

Winter Storm Warning (North MS) for the January 2011 Snow event:
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HELENA...TUNICA...CLARKSDALE...
BATESVILLE...OXFORD...TUPELO...AMORY...ABERDEEN
224 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6
AM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. (I got 6 inches)

Interestingly, in both of the above cases, the NAM was the outlier with the GFS/Euro being the two best models.

 

[brianc33710]

Do models still indicate temps will rise b/c ice storms can feed themselves once they get started. If temps are only climbing to 33/4 that might not happen. But I'm not a met either. I just remember some past ice storms from across N America.