Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

[UncleJuJu98]

18z nam rolling in now

 

[Blountwolf]

Player on stage - Our upper level trough now over S CA seems robust. Quite the dip.

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

And right on cue NWS Memphis issues winter storm watches for north Mississippi and west Tennessee

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Player on stage - Our upper level trough now over S CA seems robust. Quite the dip.
View attachment 32662

Do you think model accuracy will get better with this thing getting sampled on land?

 

[South AL Wx]

And right on cue NWS Memphis issues winter storm watches for north Mississippi and west Tennessee

HUN's afternoon AFD says a Winter Storm Watch will likely be needed in the next 12-24 hours. Looks like they are forecasting 3-6" of snow.

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

HUN's afternoon AFD says a Winter Storm Watch will likely be needed in the next 12-24 hours. Looks like they are forecasting 3-6" of snow.

Yup, they state very high confidence in a winter storm with “societal impacts”
HUN AFD

 

[kcyalater]

Do you think model accuracy will get better with this thing getting sampled on land?

each chess piece showing up will improve the near term modeling.

this thing is going to come down to placement of low genesis and subsequent track.

 

[Blountwolf]

Do you think model accuracy will get better with this thing getting sampled on land?

Model accuracy always increases closer to the event as the environment is sampled - literally there's less time for deviation from reality. So yes, but will the upper level low/trough being over land make a noticeable difference in downstream forecasting this? Not really. Entirely too many other variables. The robustness of it on satellite does give one the idea that it will be good for forcing cyclogenesis. Trough tilting west to east, even more so. The upper-level trough acts as a catalyst for a developing surface low in the GOM.

 

[Flurry]

Player on stage - Our upper level trough now over S CA seems robust. Quite the dip.
View attachment 32662

Diggy dig…We like

 

[Blountwolf]

18ZNAM is warmer through 60 - low on the coast close to Houston, so pretty far north. Pouring rain in LA - nothing frozen. AR all snow with thin line of ice on the border.

 

[Blountwolf]

Messy.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Messy.

View attachment 32663

Yuck

 

[Blountwolf]

And the warm nose wins in Bham on this run. Again though - all about the low track. This run shows it further north, over Mobile.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

All of central Alabama is literally 33 on the nam. Razor thin for a huge dump of snow or a icy mess

 

[cg9450]

Nashville's AFD, crazy what a hundred miles will do, in relation to HSV's AFD lol

 

[Blountwolf]

Ugh - yeah, we need this run to NOT verify. ATL nightmare. Disaster even.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I feel like it's going to wobble back colder, atleast I hope.

 

[Blountwolf]

I feel like it's going to wobble back colder, atleast I hope.

It likely will - but understand that snow in Alabama is always a goldilocks scenario - everything has to be just right. Many, many snow chances here have not come through due to the warm nose being just a little stronger than the artic air, and with a still abnormally warm GOM, that's got a better chance than normal of happening, to be honest.

 

[Evan]

I feel like it's going to wobble back colder, atleast I hope.

Not me. Sorry to be a party pooper, but I want zero frozen precipitation. I'm already having to change my flight to a day later and avoid Dallas altogether. Trying to get home to my kids from Europe, and this weather situation is not good. I was supposed to fly into Birmingham on Saturday evening. If I don't change my flight, we'll get destroyed by ice and snow. Since I'm going to change my flight, be prepared for a cold rain at 34 degrees.

 

[Blountwolf]

I just want it to rain or snow. Ice storms can bug right off.