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Winter 2018-2019

Still way out in voodoo land, but GFS verbatim would give Atlanta a white Christmas. Been there for a few runs now. Something to watch (and hope!)
 
MattW said:
Still way out in voodoo land, but GFS verbatim would give Atlanta a white Christmas. Been there for a few runs now. Something to watch (and hope!)
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One of the local tv mets in Huntsville gave a preview as well. Double checking my stock purchases for Sara Lee.
 
I'm starting to think this system moving through overnight into tomorrow may wind up substantially underperforming in terms of rain totals. Only some scattered pockets of rain here and there so far on radar, at least the portion of the system relevant to North AL.

Not that I'm complaining. I'm about over this nasty pattern.. even if it's only temporary I'm looking forward to a system not dumping a cold, wet rain nonstop for days on end.
 
Looking at the long range forecast through the end of the year I'm thinking we may end up calling this "the winter that wasn't". Well above avg temps. It's up to January to pull this one out and the trend isn't favorable
 
Pay attention to Thursday/Friday. Very deep 500mb trough with VERY cold air aloft may permit wrap around precip to change over to snow. Biggest question mark is the surface temps.
 
ghost said:
Looking at the long range forecast through the end of the year I'm thinking we may end up calling this "the winter that wasn't". Well above avg temps. It's up to January to pull this one out and the trend isn't favorable
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Most of the winter forecasts I saw called for an above average December. The cold we had for the last couple weeks were just a bonus, imo.
 
Man, even the fantasy GFS snow storms for the southeast are few and far between this year. Here's hoping for a pattern flip by January.
 
If ya dont like the weather...Just wait!

2 very opposite warnings for the same day addressed in the same statement. You likely couldn't have both of these in effect at the same time unless perhaps it was sea fog.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
403 AM CST Sun Dec 30 2018

...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/
TODAY FOR MOST OF THE TRANS PECOS...

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ THIS
EVENING TO 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ MONDAY FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS,
AS WELL AS THE DAVIS AND APACHE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET...

.Cold air and freezing fog are banked up against the mountains
this morning, resulting in low visibility and light ice accretion.
In addition, temperatures Saturday afternoon did not climb above
freezing in many areas, and there was no melting of ice that
formed Friday night.

An upper level storm system will move through West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico tonight. This will result in high winds in
the Guadalupe Mountains, as well as the Davis and Apache Mountains
above 5000 feet.

NMZ027-TXZ258-302200-
/O.UPG.KMAF.HW.A.0029.181231T0500Z-181231T1900Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.HW.W.0034.181231T0500Z-181231T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KMAF.ZF.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-181230T1800Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains-
Including the cities of Queen, Guadalupe Mountains NP,
and Pine Springs
303 AM MST Sun Dec 30 2018

...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS
MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM
MST MONDAY...

* TIMING...Freezing Fog Advisory...Until 11 AM MST this morning.
High Wind Warning...From 10 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Monday.

* VISIBILITY...3 miles or less.

* ICE...New ice accumulations less than one tenth of an inch.

* WINDS...Tonight...West 40 to 50 mph with gusts to around 70 mph.
Monday...West 35 to 50 mph. Gusts up to 70 mph decreasing to 60
mph in the afternoon.

* Impacts...Ice on roadways, especially bridges will make travel
difficult. Ice on sidewalks and stairways will make for
slippery footing. High winds could make driving difficult for
motorists driving high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freezing Fog Advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced with light ice accretion possible. If driving, slow down,
use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.
Click to expand...
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Do you like it for another boring 14 days of weather?
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Nah, boost the flow around the low late in the week & had some increased snow. I'm sure even if it came to fruition, ground temps will be much too warm for accumulation. Dreary winter so far.
 
00z GFS has temps in N AL 06z Friday @ ~53F ... vs 30F at 06z this morning. Reliable!
 
Today's noon run of the GFS-FV3 shows a chunk of the polar vortex dropping into the CONUS out in voodoo land with -40°F temps... so there still may be hope for winter. The problem is it's voodoo land and it's the GFS-FV3 but I'll hold on to any glimmer of hope it will give me
 
Brad Travis was talking about the weekend of the 12th. GFS is showing mid 50s and rain while the Euro is showing 30 and Snow for north Alabama. Having lived here my whole life I don’t put a lot of faith into snow following a cold front passage. Traditionally we need that Gulf coast low. With as much rain as we’ve gotten surely we can get at least one setup that works out perfect for a nice snow dump.
 
Signals are showing up on some of the models that frigid air will be heading into the south the last week of January, but we've seen this in the long range before and hasn't materialized yet.
 
ghost said:
Signals are showing up on some of the models that frigid air will be heading into the south the last week of January, but we've seen this in the long range before and hasn't materialized yet.
Click to expand...

This looks to be the real deal. The 10-14 day period appears prime for winter weather extremes. I've seen a lot of robust ensemble members on both the GFS, and EURO, and it seems that support continues to grow with each new model run.
 
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GEFS shows snows deep in the south It's way out @300 hrs. Euro Ens shows similar

r71Jone.png
 
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