Western Japan New Year Earthquake

[bjdeming]

Now they're getting massive rainfall and flooding:



X translation:

[Request] For those entering Oku-Noto on September 22nd 2024.09.21 22:38

To help with the flood damage, we have a few requests for those entering Oku-Noto tomorrow (9/22).

① Roads are gradually clearing, but the disaster continues. Please make your life your number one priority.

② Drive carefully to avoid running over debris or soil and getting a flat tire. Avoid traveling in the dark.

③ Please bring a full tank of fuel, and if possible, bring a spare in a portable fuel can.

④ There are many areas where water is cut off. Please bring plenty of 2-liter plastic bottles of water. (Plastic bottles are also useful for collecting rainwater and getting clean water.)

⑤ Please bring along any old towels, rags, or other items that can be used to wipe things down. A high-pressure washer would also be appreciated.

⑥ Regarding the above ③④⑤ , if you have any left over, please give them to me before you leave.

Please contact me for details on how to receive them.I will also be heading there from Wakura. The situation is constantly changing, so this request will expire in 12 hours. In other words, it will be valid until noon on Sunday, September 22nd. Thank you in advance.

General Incorporated Association Notonokuni Hundred Year Plan Keitaro [email protected] / 08079491339

I just heard about this in UPI news, but that's good to hear about the roads clearing. One of the knowledgeable geo-folk I follow tweeted that he heard the three workers trapped in Wajima City Tunnel were safe, but that's not official.

Incidentally (and relevant to the quakes, which are still going on all over the peninsula, frequently though at lesser magnitude), today's news reports mentioned that recovery from the New Year's Day disaster has been slow -- that's the first official, impartial confirmation of the intense criticism about the recovery that I've seen tweeted. I couldn't confirm it, and I still don't know how much, if any, was valid, but if it was, there ... well, it doesn't sound like there has been much recovery all year. I hope that's not the case.

 

[bjdeming]

Figured it was a setup like this (though they are on the Sea of Japan side, not the Pacific):



X translation: "A tropical depression that has changed from Typhoon No. 14. It passed through Noto with a developed cloud area and clear circulation. It rained heavily, following yesterday morning's rain.The only consolation is that this rain will go away easily once the low pressure system passes...#T2414"

 

[bjdeming]

He hasn't tweeted in 16 hours, per X, but here he compared the Google Earth image (left) and the image in this NHK story (autotranslated); from that story, it sounds bad there.



I haven't looked it up in detail but from just general tweets it sounds as though the typhoon weakened but then re-intensified over northern Noto Peninsula (presumably from warm Sea of Japan waters?).

It must have been a slow mover, too.

 

[bjdeming]

About that tunnel :



X translation: "Landslide at Nakaya Tunnel: 10 workers transported to hospital, 2 die on National Route 249 in Wajima, Ishikawa (MRO Hokuriku Broadcasting)https://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/articles/mro/1443276…...The entrance to the Nakaya Tunnel on the Wajima city side. It's much worse than I expected. Literally half the height of the tunnel is buried."

There is some discussion on X of how much damage is attributable to the January 1 quake and how much (apart from the obvious) is really from this weather event.

The main problem in this current disaster, of course, is the steep, hilly country (per photos). Seismically, I don't know about topography changes wrought in January but suspect that frequent though low-level (mostly) shaking since then probably has contributed by preconditioning failure: loosening up soil layers and some rock formations as well as slightly weakening buildings and infrastructure.

Further down, ? whether or how that seismicity would change groundwater flow and/or groundwater-seawater interfaces, both of which probably were seriously altered back in January or how that might feed back geologically and in hydrological ways now..

Very complex place, and just an awful extra weight for those people to bear.

 

[bjdeming]

Incredible model animation of the New Year's tsunamis:

 

[bjdeming]

The Noto Peninsula is still rocking -- an M6.4 just occurred off the coast.



As far as I can tell on X (not far), damage isn't severe -- no disruption of mobile services and, while there are some power outages, no power outages from this quake.

 

[bjdeming]

Rockin!

The map in red just shows quakes over the last month (including the M6.4).



I tried reading up on it, but the geological situation is unusual. There apparently is a water body down there, and other factors that affect movement along faults; what happened last January apparently was that enough force built up to cross the barrier but the water somehow was responsible for movement along multiple faults pretty much simultaneously; and, obviously, the water, the faults, and the forces are still at work.

Per X translation, Yokahama Geo, who seems to live there (from his posts), notes that this and associated tremors are a little southwest of the January 2024 epicenters.

PS: With excellent timing, JMA recently released a multilanguage hazard mitigation site -- here is the quake list in English (Noto is in Ishikawa Prefecture) and their page on the M6.4.

 

[bjdeming]

Here's the NHK story (autotranslated). As of a little over an hour ago, no damage was reported.

Also, JMA tweeted that there is no tsunami risk.

 

[bjdeming]

There have been no more biggies yet, but Weather News -- Wikipedia calls it the largest privately owned weather service in the world -- posted this five hours ago, and the graphic format is something we're all familiar with. Per YouTube autotranslation, he says it is all part of an aftershock sequence from the New Year quake; otherwise the info is much the same as in that NHK report.

They do show weather radar towards the end to underscore the landslide risk because of rain-soaked ground.

 

[bjdeming]

Japan's public news agency NHK has published an in-depth summary of the January 1, 2024, quake/tsunami: link (autotranslated).

So. Much. Information.

Just one of the details:

Expert surveys have revealed that the land area of the Noto Peninsula has expanded by approximately 4.4 square kilometers, and the coastline has expanded seaward by a maximum of 240 meters in Wajima City and 175 meters in Suzu City. There are also several ports where seawater has almost completely disappeared.