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Western Japan New Year Earthquake

bjdeming

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Just could not helping sharing this one!

"People who feel extremely anxious after watching the news about major natural disasters should study natural science. I think that by trying to understand and understand what happened, we are less likely to get caught up in anxiety that has no substance.Among the natural sciences, the field of meteorology and weather is the easiest to get into. It's also useful in daily life!※ This is just my personal opinion."

 

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This is the news channel that posted the cam image of the bay sloshing; posted about an hour ago. The info via LingoTube translation is below:



  • Known toll as of 8 a.m.(it's almost 5 p.m. there now): 92, mostly in Wajima City (55) and Suzu (23).
  • Missing (think that's what they mean): 242.
  • Several villages are still isolated and at least 850 are still stranded.
  • Rain continues, and rain and snow are in the forecast, along with strong winds.
You're probably wondering, like me, why the response is so drawn out in such an earthquake-resilient society.

This graphic from January 2 shows why:



Per the report an hour ago, 91 road closures are still in effect.

The military is sending in what they can, per other news videos at this channel, but it is slow going.

Aftershocks aren't helping.
 

bjdeming

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Weather and the holiday are worsening the impact, in addition to ongoing aftershocks.

  • Per this UPI story, forecast rain could lead to even more landslides.
  • Per this tweet, smartphone records on January 1st show that holidaygoers boosted the population of Noto Town x10, Suzu City x6, and Wajima City x3. From some of the tweet's responses that I've come across, it's possible (though not confirmed) that this group isn't included in the reported tolls and lists of missing, if those are based on resident lists. :(

 

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I had to take a break yesterday but am going through the Japanese tweets again today and also found this -- hovercraft; a way to bring in aid despite the altered seabed, but terribly dangerous in this weather.



Elsewhere have read that offshore ships can supply mobile and radio communications to the affected north coast.
 

bjdeming

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"Tsunami simulation using the Geographical Survey Institute's provisional model. About 50 minutes after the earthquake occurred. It can be seen that the propagation speed of a tsunami changes in a complex manner depending on the shape of the seafloor topography. Because the water in Toyama Bay is deep, the tsunami propagates quickly, reaching Toyama in about the same speed as Suzu City. The tsunami waves wrap around Suzu City and Joetsu and overlap, increasing their height."



From what I've read, the highest wave was 1.2 meters.
 

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There was also a tweet I found yesterday, though it was a little older, from a knowledgeable source who pointed out that stress still exists at either end of the area of rupture and, for reasons I could not follow, this means there could be another big quake.

Thought I bookmarked it, but apparently not and I can't find it now in recent tweets. But it's worth mentioning.

It's Sunday there now; on Saturday there was an M5. This is the largest since the big one. Who knows if it is a particularly strong aftershock or a sign of something bigger on the way?

Need to take another break and am thankful that I can. My heart goes out to all those caught up in this nightmare, and to the nation as a whole.
 

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"The section between Anamizu and Nakajima/Tazuruhama is the only narrow, one-lane national highway that can be used, supporting the victims of the Oku-Noto area.Please, please help us to allow the Self-Defense Forces, lifeline restoration, and vehicles transporting large amounts of supplies to pass through as soon as possible.Snow is falling along the local mountains.If you get stuck due to snow or a flat tire, you are putting the lives of many people at risk.Please don't go to Noto now."



We will face something similiar in our Coastal Range if and when the Big One hits. Even without all the infrastructure damage in the valley (including I5) the coast -- probably tsunami ravaged -- will be inaccessible by land for quite a while.

And if it hits in winter, as the last one did in the 1700s, we will all be facing similar weather challenges.

Hope that Cascadia megathrust quake holds off for the foreseeable future.
 
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bjdeming

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I had forgotten Japan even had an emperor. It does. He canceled public appearances but was photographed at a New Year's party -- both the party and the cheery red flower have at least some parts of Twitter seething.

 

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Hope this prediction does not verify, but it well could. (Link added - there's an ongoing discussion comparing this to Japan's last high-casualty quake event.)

"In the Kumamoto earthquake, there were 50 direct deaths and 200 related deaths. The Noto Peninsula earthquake will cause 250 deaths. I think the number of related deaths is well over 1,000. If you take into account the age structure and geographical conditions, I think it will reach around 2,000."

 

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Just another example of what's going on per Japanese internet sources that just can't be covered by outside news agencies yet.

On the 6th, members of the Iwata City Fire Department, who were dispatched as the prefecture's first emergency fire support team to the Noto Peninsula Earthquake disaster area, reported their activities to Mayor Hiroaki Kusachi at the Imanoura Fire Department. Many roads in the disaster area were cut off, so it took some time to arrive. Firefighter Naoto Oba (51), who served as the head of the city's dispatch team, said, ``I wanted to help as soon as possible, but I feel frustrated that we were unable to reach the site.''


(Provided photo) Emergency fire support team members walking to confirm safety after roads are cut off in Suzu City, Ishikawa Prefecture (Courtesy of Iwata City Fire Department Headquarters)

(Provided photo) Emergency fire support team members walking to confirm safety after roads are cut off in Suzu City, Ishikawa Prefecture (Courtesy of Iwata City Fire Department Headquarters)
The first group of nine members departed from the city on the night of the 1st. Roads in the disaster-stricken area were frequently prone to cave-ins and cracks, and we arrived in Suzu City, Ishikawa Prefecture, in the early morning hours of the 4th, about 59 hours later...

-- Source (autotranslated)
 

bjdeming

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Don't know if anyone is interested in technical details, but this video's graphics on exactly why this quake was so powerful were interesting enough to run it through a video translater.

Interesting are the graphics that show the role water played in setting up the quake (a fact confirmed by papers I looked up -- for some reason there is a huge amount of water down there and it lubricated the fault, which this professor notes might not have been detected until the 1st when it moved).

More of what I got from the translater is below the video. (I keep expecting footage of Godzilla! :) )

The man they're interviewing is Professor Nishimura of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University.



Okay, you see the graphic with the water underground. Dr. Nishimura also demonstrates the reverse normal faulting.

The image of the peninsula with round red epicenters shows the ongoing swarms that the underground water apparently still enables.

Another graphic where they show the Noto Peninsula has a dotted-line oval indicating the overall fault's length - yeah, more than 90 miles of that peninsula bedding shifted!

One tweet that analyzed it reported (rightly or not, I can't say) that the damaging part of the movement only lasted 50 seconds.

The video peninsula graphics after that show a bunch of red lines and a heavier red line (which is where the January 1 action took place).

That January 1 event, says Dr. Nishimura (via Lingo Tube), was multiple segments of the big fault breaking simultaneously. That's very rare, he says, and the process multiplied the force.

Those other wavy red lines are other faults in the area. Dr. Nishimura says the events on January 1st have put pressure on them (on either side of the big break) and so more strong quakes and tsunamis are possible any time.

Sigh.

When asked why some tsunamis came in quickly, he noted that ordinarily a quake, say, the one in 2011 on Japan's Pacific shore, happens offshore and it takes a while for the wave to come in.

On January 1st, movements of the peninsula happened right along the Sea of Japan coast, and in some cases the water responded immediately.

I've seen tweets saying that tsunami in some areas touched points 3 m above sea level, but I don't know if that was the same area that Dr. Nishimura means. Hope not!

There are some dramatic videos of the shaking and the wave arrivals in this segment.
 

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One-month update: The toll wasn't as high as some feared, but the effects continue.

Per NHK (auto translated),

So far, 238 people have been confirmed dead in Ishikawa Prefecture due to the Noto Peninsula earthquake on January 1st, and the whereabouts of 19 people are still unknown. As of January 31st, damage to 46,294 homes has been confirmed, mainly in the Noto region.

In addition, 14,643 people have taken refuge in evacuation centers, and of these, 4,792 people are living in "secondary evacuation shelters" such as inns and hotels in areas far from their homes.

...
more than 40,000 households continue to be without water, mainly in the Noto region.

The water outage is expected to be tentatively restored in many areas from the end of February to the end of March, but in some areas it is expected to last until April or later.


...

Ishikawa Wajima No catches in January at all 13 ports​


Ishikawa Prefecture's fishing industry also suffered major damage from the Noto Peninsula earthquake.

According to Ishikawa Prefecture, after the Noto Peninsula earthquake, damage was confirmed to 60 fishing ports, more than 80% of the prefecture's 69 fishing ports, and in some cases, the seabed was exposed or the water became shallow, making it impossible for ships to leave port. Some ports are in a state of

According to a tally by the Ishikawa Prefecture Fisheries Cooperative Association, all 13 ports in Wajima City had no catches in January.

Wajima City has one of the largest catches in the prefecture, and last year's catch was over 3.175 billion yen, and this winter, puffer fish, cod, crab, monkfish, and other fish are in season.

In addition to Wajima City...
 

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Given the concerns about stress buildup at either end of the fault system that gave way on January 1st, this is of interest (though it does not "forecast" more big ones): "There was a M4.0 earthquake on the Noto Peninsula just before noon today on the 6th, with the epicenter near the border between Anamizu Town and Nanao City. The focal mechanism was a reverse fault type with east-west compression, very similar to yesterday's earthquake off the west coast. Epicenter distribution based on epicenter data from Hi-net yesterday and the Japan Meteorological Agency today, and the Japan Meteorological Agency's initial response to today's earthquake. Today's earthquake was not listed on Hi-net, so I read the epicenter from the Japan Meteorological Agency's ``Epicenter Distribution'' map."



If the stress can be relieved in a aeries of moderate tremors like this, that would be great!
 

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Wow.



"Approximately 3 meter uplift confirmed on the seabed off the coast of the Noto Peninsula (Japan Coast Guard, February 8)https://kaiho.mlit.go.jp/info/kouhou/post-1069.html``It has been revealed that the seabed approximately 1km off the northwest coast of the Noto Peninsula (depth 40m to 90m) has become shallower by approximately 3m.''"
 

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Not sure about "last year" since online translators are challenged by Japanese dating systems (in volcano updates, calling an obviously 2024 date "2020," for instance).

"Aftershocks of the Noto Peninsula Earthquake, there were two earthquakes over M5 on February 15th last year. Epicenter distribution from the 14th (yesterday, today is Hi-net) and Japan Meteorological Agency CMT solution of the two earthquakes. M5.0 at 15:29 appears to be a strike-slip type with north-south compression. Is the location a little far away?M-T figure from January 1st and cumulative number of pieces of M2 or more. Since the beginning of February, there have been many large earthquakes."

 

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Aftershocks continue...only moderately strong, still. :)

"The aftershocks of the Noto Peninsula earthquake, the CMT solution for the two earthquakes on February 15th, and the data after careful examination have been released. Epicenter distribution and CMT solution according to the Japan Meteorological Agency from the 15th to yesterday. As expected, M5.0 at 15:29 was a strike-slip type of east-west compression rather than north-south compression.The earthquake closer to Sado has been revised to M4.9."

 
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