Wave in the Eastern Atlantic-Code Yellow

[Brent]

the GFS has been very bullish on this for days and is actually getting some support now for the idea and it is also honking on a potential major US threat in about 10-14 days long way out but definitely the most model support for a storm this season


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several
days while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The GFS shows some noticeable organization in as short as 24 hours.

 

[Brent]

GFS all alone at 0z, CMC nada GFS parallel nada

Wrecks Florida, goes across Tampa, hits New Orleans from the east then moves west along the coast to Houston, wtf

 

[KoD]

GFS has been very consistent for several days showing this linger for a few days as a weak low and then gaining tremendous strength down the road. The question remains, is the GFS being consistently wrong? Only time will tell. I'll certainly be keeping a close eye on this.

 

[akt1985]

What is it looking like for Jamaica this weekend or early next week in regards to this wave? I have a co-worker who is on a honeymoon there this week.

 

[Brent]

What is it looking like for Jamaica this weekend or early next week in regards to this wave? I have a co-worker who is on a honeymoon there this week.

The GFS has way backed off its doomy runs... as of now, I wouldn't be too concerned but things could change. If anything happens it'll probably be towards Tue/Wed next week, so still a long way out... but the trend is away from a significant storm anywhere.

 

[J_Keith]

The GFS has way backed off its doomy runs... as of now, I wouldn't be too concerned but things could change. If anything happens it'll probably be towards Tue/Wed next week, so still a long way out... but the trend is away from a significant storm anywhere.

Poof!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The GFS shows some noticeable organization in as short as 24 hours.

That didn't happen, and the model has backed off to no development. Ensembles now say nothing as well.