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Volcano thread

Lava falls :cool:



It's in an awkward location in terms of public viewing, and toxic gases and tephra mean no stopping on Chain of Craters Road even though that's open again:



The magma supply is interesting, partly because of those movements just before the eruption, and partly because the USGS said in an early update that this was coming from the summit storage system and later reported that Kilauea's somewhat deeper reservoir is now feeding this.

MicrosoftTeams-image%20%2810%29_2.png



Source, public domain.

Edit: They did this week's "Volcano Watch" on it. It contains a link to the new cam, too.
 
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The Mount Adams situation isn't a major eruptive type of crisis, but lahars are a very serious concern here and local news is on it (there's a link to the CVO Adams page at that link):




Edit: Aaaand they didn't even mention lahars.

Well, many do occur in connection with an eruption and they did establish that there are no signs of magma rising, in terms of satellite observation and gas emissions.

But I have read that there is much weak rock up there; glaciers are heavy, and Adams has several of them. Flank collapse is always a concern at any volcano with so much hydrothermally altered rock, and it doesn't have the clear precursors that many eruptions do.

There probably isn't much the USGS can say about that just now.

The new quick-deploy stations should give them a better idea about the quakes and their location with regard to weakened zones. Then we'll get more updates.
 
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This USGS post is just the same news release, basically, but it has pictures of them installing that first quick-deploy station out there yesterday. They had good weather for it -- today, any field workers are wearing rain gear and probably slogging through mud.

No other news.
 
No more news yet, of course, but this interview with Oregon Public Broadcasting is interesting and he does mention the mudflows as well as the peculiarity of there being such quakes (low-level and comparatively infrequent as they are) at such a quiet volcano.

Also, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network tweeted yesterday that a wildfire almost destroyed that solitary station on Adams earlier this year, and they thanked the firefighters again.

Here is their Mount Adams page.
 
From USGS Volcanoes, Facebook, a few hours ago re: Mount Adams (emphasis added :) ):

On October 3, 2024, USGS released an Information Statement to share information about the small increase in earthquakes at Mount Adams/Pahto* (https://www.usgs. gov/volcanoes/mount-adams) in southcentral Washington. Since then, USGS and Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) scientists have installed three new temporary seismic stations to better locate future earthquakes. Mount Adams continues to be at the Green/Normal alert level. The current activity has not had any impact on the lahar hazard.

What does “locate” an earthquake mean? Locating an earthquake means determining the origin point (epicenter) and depth of the earthquakes based on seismic data from multiple monitoring stations. At the time of the Information Statement, there was only one monitoring station near Mount Adams. Using information from that one station, six locatable earthquakes had been detected, as well as numerous very small earthquakes that seismologists could not locate.

Since October 3, there has been one additional small locatable earthquake (0.9M) and additional non-locatable very small earthquakes at the rate of about 2 to 3 per day. All earthquakes thus far are too small to feel at the surface. This trend in detected and located earthquakes is consistent with what was occurring in September and does not signify a change in volcanic activity or alert level. Seismologists at the USGS and our partners at the PNSN will continue to carefully analyze the new data coming in and putting it in the context of the activity that has been observed prior to the new station installations. Volcanic activity has been relatively sparse at Mount Adams since the last ice age compared to neighboring Cascade volcanoes. We expect the background activity to be similarly sparse. While this small number of earthquakes is unusual compared to the 42 years of earthquake data we have for Mount Adams, 42 years is not a lot of data when considering long geologic timelines. All other parameters (like gases and deformation) appear normal at this time.

*Approximately half of the volcano is within U. S. Forest Service managed Wilderness Area and the other half is within the Yakama Indian Reservation. The Yakama name for the mountain is Pahto.
 
The namesake for all geysers got unusually active over the weekend, and no one knows why according to RUV (autotranslated).

Geysir is in southwestern Iceland but not on the Reykjanes Peninsula -- in fact, I think it's in a different (and rather quiet) system, the Western Volcanic Zone (for comparison, many active volcanoes like Grimsvotn, Katla, Bardarbunga, etc., are in the Eastern Volcanic Zone, while Krafla is among the Northern Zone volcanoes).

This layperson's impression is that these zones of the island are sort of like Mid-Atlantic Ridge mini-segments in between the main Reykjanes Ridge coming in from the south and the Kolbeinsey Ridge leaving Iceland northward -- though the picture is complicated by the hotspot underneath Iceland's lithosphere.

The mini-segments jump around (imperceptibly in human terms but geologically noticeable), and apparently the Eastern Zone is taking over the Western Zone.

Whether all that has anything to do with the changes at Geysir is just one of the factors those boffins have to consider. They've got a tough job of it!
 
Earlier this week, Popcatépetl switched over to Strombolian activity (which it does now and then). The alert level is unchanged but apparently some of the ash is coloring sunrise and sunset in Florida :) .

It's in clouds right now (with occasional lightning) but there are livestreams at Webcams de Mexico and here (live webicorders on one feed; noisy, though).
 
Apparently the ongoing eruptive activity at Lewotobi, in Indonesia, suddenly escalated today:



I did a guest-video blog post on this remote but populated island volcano back in January -- trying to get more information on what's happening there now Thus far, can only see that authorities have elevated the alert level from III to IV (the max).
 


VAAC report from Volcano Discovery

The raised alert level notice (Indonesian) and VONA.
 
Well, the current VONA is from before the escalation, and the MAGMA ID app, understandably, is running very slow.

According to X translation of this tweet: "Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki in East Flores Regency, East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), erupted again on Sunday (3/11) night. Nine people were reported to have died as a result of the incident."The incident happened last night at around 23.57 WITA. 9 people died," said Head of the East Flores Communication and Information Service (Kominfo), Hironimus Lamawuran when contacted, quoted from Kompas, Monday (4/11).Hironimus revealed, based on temporary identification, eight adults and one child were fatalities. They were residents of Klatanlo Village, Wulanggitang District. "Those who died were mostly hit by debris from the houses they lived in," he said.Previously, the Center for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation (PVMBG) of the Geological Agency of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) raised the status of the Lewotobi Laki-laki volcano from alert level III to alert level IV starting November 3, 2024 at 24.00 WITA.Head of PVMBG Prihatin Hadi Wijaya explained that the increase in status was based on the results of an evaluation of the development of Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki's activity from October 23 to November 3, 2024."



Wih Flores being so remote and it occurring at night, radio may be the best source of information just now.
 
Then again, Kompas is live -- it's in Indonesian, but apparently the worst is over (for now, at least); perhaps the plug gave way:

 
News summary from Kompas about three hours ago: 10 known dead, dozens injured; houses, schools, and other important structures burned; main transportation route affected by ash; a little over 10,000 evacuated; and SAR activities continue.

Lewotobi is still at Level IV but I haven't seen images or read news of what it's actually doing (still suspect the escalation was a one-time explosion or two that expelled a plug in the conduit, rather than a full-fledged mass eruption increase that could pose further lava/ash, etc. hazards, but that's not confirmed and ? how it would have affected the ongoing eruption).

Here are a couple of satellite views of the ashfall streak -- not massive but considerable:



Will see what the eventual Global Volcanism Program report says.
 
Excerpt from the blog:

"Yesterday volcanologists shared some images of somewhat stronger activity at the Laki-Laki summit, but as this Kompas story (Indonesian) succinctly puts it (browser translation):

Lewotobi Laki-laki Volcano erupted again with a roar that emitted hot clouds and sand rain as high as 5,000 meters towards the affected area at 11.15 WITA, Thursday (11/7/2024).
"Per the rest of the story, one lady had a stroke but search-and-rescue teams had not found casualties at that point — evacuation orders are in place and probably saved countless lives, given the pyroclastic flows seen in some social media images:"





That last tweet is since the blog post (traffic scene at the end is from the November 3 event aftermath, and I'm not sure that the very last image isn't altered) -- news just seems to be getting out to the world, but Kompas is not leading with the story on their website currently -- hopefully, it was just a paroxysm rather than sustained activity.

Volcano Discovery has details on the plume.

The GVP lists three VEI 3 eruptions for Lewotobi, two in the first half of the 20th century and one in the late 1600s. All the rest are VEI 1's and 2's (some of which could have been "just" phreatomagmatic blasts).

There's no rule saying Lewotobi couldn't go higher on the scale, but that would mean sustained activity at this level (for comparison, Mount St. Helens May 1980 eruption was VEI 5).

Here's their report through November 5th:

The Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) reported that eruptive activity intensified at Lewotobi Laki-laki during 30 October-5 November, which included a major eruption resulting in fatalities. The large explosive eruption began at 2357 on 3 November, generating pyroclastic flows that traveled down the flanks in all directions, ejecting ballistic projectiles, and forming a large vent within the summit crater. Seismic data indicated that the explosion lasted about 24 minutes, until 0021 on 4 November. Darkness prevented direct ash plume observations, but the Darwin VAAC issued an aviation advisory for ash to 12 km altitude (10.3 km above the summit) based on infrared data from the HIMAWARI-9 satellite. Within 3 minutes of the eruption onset, at 0000 on 4 November, the Alert Level was raised to Level 4 (the highest on a four-level scale), the Aviation Color Code was elevated from Orange to Red (the highest on a four-color scale), and the hazard exclusion zone was expanded to a 7-km radius around both the Laki-laki and Perempuan craters.

The BNPB Operations Control Center (Pusdalops) reported at 0745 on 5 November that nine people had died as a result of the eruption, another person was in critical condition, and 63 has serious or minor injuries. At least six of those who died came from Klatanlo Village, 3 km NW of the summit. As many as 10,295 people, or 2,734 families, were evacuated to unaffected areas 15-20 km from the volcano. Many areas were covered in ash, incandescent ejecta started fires in residential areas, and homes were damaged within a 7-km radius. There were six villages affected in Wulanggitang District (Pululera, Nawokote, Hokeng Jaya, Klatanlo, Boru, and Boru Kedang), four villages in the Ile Bura District (Dulipali, Nobo, Nurabelen, and Riang Rita), and four villages in the Titehena District (Konga, Kobasoma, Bokang Wolomatang, and Watowara). Multiple impact craters from ballistic ejecta were discovered, with the furthest reported at 7 km; one at an unreported location measured approximately 13 m wide and 3 m deep.

Ash from the eruptions disrupted airspace navigation around Fransiskus Xaverius Seda Airport, Soa Airport, Haji Hasan Aroeboesman Airport, Frans Sales Lega Airport, Komodo International Airport, Gewayantana Airport, Wunopito Airport, and Kabir Airport, which led to the cancellation of several flights. By 1600 on 4 November, all airports resumed flights, except for Komodo International Airport, which remained closed until 0630 on 5 November.

Explosions continued on 4 November, with five events producing ash plumes that reached at least 300 m above the summit and incandescent material visible in nighttime webcam images. A total of three explosions were recorded on 5 November, which produced ash plumes that rose to 1 km above the summit.

Prior to the major 3-4 November events, eight explosions recorded during 30-31 October produced ash plumes that reached approximately 1 km above the summit. On 1 November, PVMBG reported a significant increase in the number of deep volcanic earthquakes, and another eight explosions generated ash plumes that reached approximately 2 km above the summit. Explosive activity continued to increase, with Strombolian explosions at 0250 and 0420 generating eruption columns that reached 1.5-2 km above the summit; lightning was observed within the eruption columns. No explosions were recorded between 2359 on 1 November and 2357 on 3 November, although seismicity remained elevated.

Sources: Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG, also known as CVGHM), Antara News, Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), Badan Nacional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), Radio Republik Indonesia

PVMBG page (Indonesian).
 
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This layperson thinks, from her reading, that a sustained plinian plume would form an umbrella cloud at the neutral buoyancy level -- looks like Lewotobi Laki-Laki tried but juuust missed it:



PVBMG reports the eruption is ongoing. Time will tell if this is paroxysms or throat clearing for something bigger after the likely arrival of a fresh batch of magma from depth.

Also:

 
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No more news on Lewotobi at the moment, but we now are providing aerial and satellite assistance for data gathering:

 
Per YouTube autotranslation of this Kompas video, uploaded four hours ago, Lewotobi has had another spectacular paroxysm with 8-km plume, pyroclastic flows out to 3 km, and 1.5-km lava flows -- no casualties, but more evacuations. Tremor has subsided for now.



Antara News reports that the PVMBG head calls it an unusual eruption. He was speaking in context of the lava bombs on November 3, which dug craters up to 40 feet wide and 16 feet deep, miles from the summit, and is extraordinary, but the same could probably be said about the whole episode (consisting of 14 eruptions thus far, according to the Kompas video).

Violent activity like that affects the magma plumbing and conduit geometry, I have read, making the volcanologists' job even harder.

Also, Lewotobi apparently is emitting lots of sulfur now and (layperson speculation not supported by expert report or anything in the GVP eruption history on this volcano's page) if it eventually pulls something along the lines of Pinatubo 1991, at 8° S latitude, that resulting sulfur aerosol veil will likely affect both hemispheres.

If...(/layperson speculation)

PS: The effects of a totally different volcano nearby, at 8° S, that had an eruption in 1815 ten times bigger than Pinatubo's were global and bad.

The good thing -- for us today but definitely not for the neighbors at the time -- is that both Pinatubo and Tambora had been dormant for so long that their big ones caught everyone by surprise (luckily, there was a seismometer near Pinatubo that gave a heads-up).

They "brewed and stewed" up a very explosive batch of magma (quote from Clive Oppenheimer's Eruptions That Shook the World).

Also, both volcanoes had evidence, in hindsight, of big eruptions. High-end eruptions tend to repeat after long repose intervals (references available).

Lewotobi does not have that background. It has been erupting for a while, too -- if this layperson's understanding is correct, that means it likely doesn't have the voluminous magma brew or the stored volatile power to sustain such a big eruption.

So, hopefully, no global impacts, but this is still an extremely hazardous situation for everyone in the neighborhood or passing through that air space.
 
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Another paroxysm, probably ongoing. Current Darwin VAAC advisory:

FVAU03 ADRM 082140
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20241108/2140Z
VAAC: DARWIN
VOLCANO: LEWOTOBI 264180
PSN: S0833 E12246
AREA: INDONESIA
SUMMIT ELEV: 1703M
ADVISORY NR: 2024/917
INFO SOURCE: HIMAWARI-9, CVGHM
AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED
ERUPTION DETAILS: VA TO FL500 OBS AT 08/2110Z, MOV W
OBS VA DTG: 08/2110Z
OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL500 S0824 E12259 - S0845 E12256 - S0926
E12131 - S0839 E12004 - S0623 E12019 - S0649 E12211 MOV W
05KT
FCST VA CLD +6 HR: 09/0310Z SFC/FL500 S0923 E12324 - S0902
E11921 - S0743 E11813 - S0618 E11855 - S0631 E12052 - S0809
E12347
FCST VA CLD +12 HR: 09/0910Z SFC/FL500 S0803 E12343 - S0920
E12334 - S0945 E12139 - S0848 E12044 - S0713 E12148
FCST VA CLD +18 HR: 09/1510Z SFC/FL500 S0825 E12326 - S1010
E12312 - S0956 E12039 - S0725 E12047 - S0707 E12236
RMK: NEW HIGH LEVEL ERUPTION AT 08/2047Z REPORTED BY VONA
AND DISCERNIBLE ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HEIGHT AND
MOVEMENT ASSESSED BASED ON GROUND REPORTS, SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS, AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN 20241109/0040Z=

-- with the ever-popular "How to read a VAAC advisory" post from the Volcanism Blog.

Dr. Yukio Hayakawa (who, I recently learned, compiled tephra records in Japan going back a million years, which is mind-boggling!) counts four paroxysms now with plumes exceeding 15 km, per X translation:




"...Lewotobi volcano, Indonesia

Four eruptions of smoke exceeding 15 kilometres were observed.

09th 06:00 FL500
8th 15:00 FL5300
8th 02:00 FL5500
7th 12:00 FL550..."

He's using Japan time.

As far as I know, which isn't far, no pyroclastic flows have travelled farther than 3 km. (For comparison, in Decade Volcano MErapi's VEI 4 eruption on Java in 2010, they eventually had to expand the evacuation zone to 20 km; though the climactic flows didn't travel quite that far, some did exceed the original 15-km perimeter.)
 
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X translation:

"There was an eruption of Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki on Saturday, November 9, 2024, at 04:47 WITA, the height of the ash column was observed to be ± 9000 m above the peak. The eruption was recorded on a seismograph with a maximum amplitude of 47.3 mm and a duration of 510 seconds. "
 
The frequency of Lewotobi's paroxysms seems increased -- another VAAC advisory (FL 520) is in effect from two hours ago.



Here is an excellent summary of the situation thus far from a US news source (Hattiesburg! :) ). They did increase the exclusion zone to 8 km.

Also, pyroclastic flows from one of Friday's blasts went out 2 km, they report. It's a surprisingly short distance, considering the strong paroxysms, but then, there is strong strombolian activity shown in this video via Antara News from the early Saturday morning paroxysm (local time):



It's hardly the sticky, dome-building lava that some volcanoes, like MErapi (Java), exude and use to make lengthy pyroclastic flows.

Sigh -- this is not like severe weather; there is no point in staying up all night. It could be a day or more to find out what happens. But it does seem to this layperson that Lewotobi might be building up to something, I don't know what, perhaps its first known VEI 4 or more?

Time will tell.
 
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Straits Times reports the exclusion zone is widening from 8 to 9 km. They are on an island, but I don't know the topography very well.
 
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