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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
...DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and
* Northwestern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 22.3 North, longitude 86.8 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed starting
later today. On the forecast track, the system should move across
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight, across the
southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday,
and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern
Bahamas Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and become
a tropical storm later today, and some slight strengthening is
possible while it approaches Florida today and tonight. Additional
strengthening is possible after the system moves east of Florida
over the western Atlantic late Saturday and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).